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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: QwikSand who wrote (34093)	8/2/2000 11:36:51 PM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

Re: My own views also remain unchanged: that IA64 will never be an important processor architecture. QS, at least for another year, this is true. Like I was predicting earlier in the year, Merced would be a joke. Now they are saying wait for McKinley. I'm still not convinced that IA64 will amount to anything. By far, the POWER and MAJC architectures are the best. Then you have IBM fabbing for HP and CPQ. How is Intel going to compete with an EPIC architecture and an outdated manufacturing process? I hope you're wrong because I bought some today (AMD); but that's usually a real good sign that the stock will tank. My view on AMD (the stock) has changed. Before I said that I would be shocked if AMD was not at $200 by year end, but at that time I could not predict the other factors that would be in play. AMD (the company) is executing even better than I thought. We are looking at Y2000 EPS of somewhere from $5-7 per share. This gives it a P/e of somewhere from 9-12 based off of today's price. I was thinking a P/e of 25-30 would give it a price of $200. Given the fear of semi's now, it's hard to say what will happen. Even in a slowdown, AMD will be OK, but that doesn't mean the stock will. Flash (1/3) is locked up in long term contracts going through 2001. For processors, AMD is killing Intel even worse than I thought they would be. Industry reports state that AMD is outshipping Intel 12-1 at 1 Ghz and 3-1 above 900 Mhz. This directly corralates to the Q2 earnings. For the "core" business (processors), AMD was up $400 million YoY while Intel was only up $88 million. This isn't represented in the current price and I expect it to only get worse as AMD seems to be able to up speeds flawlessly while Intel is clearly having trouble making high speed parts. I'm still sitting on my Jan calls and plan on holding them. At Q2 earnings I dumped the rest at $93 and have been sitting it out while we have gone down to $62. I'm still not back in for a few reasons. I'm looking for a clear bottom. Also, I would like to see the SOX move away from that 200 day MA that it is flirting with. Personally, I think AMD bottomed today, but I'm still not in. chic