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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Goutam who wrote (3533)	8/3/2000 1:17:24 PM
From: Cirruslvr	Respond to of 275872

Goutama - RE: "Hope we get more direct guidance from AMD rather than from opinions expressed by some analysts." The thing is that AMD has given all the guidance it can. They have said flash demand is still greater than supply, and they expect to meet their projection of 3.6M seventh-gen processors. They have said Durons and K6-x and flash are sold out for the Q. They have said all they can possibly say without raising expectations even higher. The market is oblivious to what AMD has said. Maybe this should signal something to us...

To: Goutam who wrote (3533)	8/3/2000 1:40:05 PM
From: Mani1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Goutama re <<I think DURON launch has many similarities to the ATHLON launch last year.>> I for one expected a much smoother launch with Duron than the orignal Athlon. Perhaps I was being naive. I am finally satisfied with the explanation as to why we have not seen any Duron from tier one OEM's. It is the only explanation that I have heard which makes sense. I agree with Kash, in the surface it clearly looks to me that AMD completely screwed up the launch. Maybe it is VIA to blame, but one way or the other it is AMD and its shareholder who suffer. I do think that the slow down in mobile handset and Duron issue is fully priced in to AMD. Forward PE is 10, trailing PE in two months will be 16. The time to sell is long gone. Time to dip the toe again, too bad I am already soaked! Mani

To: Goutam who wrote (3533)	8/3/2000 1:44:08 PM
From: Pravin Kamdar	Respond to of 275872

Goutama, I believe that Jerry stated that they would not be constrained by infrastructure issues in Q3. This statement is beginning to look a little premature, but I will give Jerry the benefit-of-the-doubt, until we have data to the contrary. Pravin.

To: Goutam who wrote (3533)	8/3/2000 2:00:45 PM
From: Pravin Kamdar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Goutama, I will believe 3.6 million units when I see it, but there are several factors that could make it happen. We entered Q3 with a wide range of high-end Athlon systems from HP on the shelves at retail. HP has not made much fan fair about using Athlon, but I suspect that they are selling more Athlon than Compaq, and will sell more than Gateway in Q3. Also, the new Compaq box styling is a quantum leap over the old style, and will be a big hit with consumers. THis should help Compaq sell more Athlon than last quarter. So, for Q3, I see Compaq and Gateway sales of Athlon to be up a little, and HP sales of Athlon to be up a lot. These three companies alone could account for a 25% increase in Athlon sales. Further, Athlon sales in Europe and Asia seem to be picking up nicely. This could add an extra 15%. New highly stable and overclockable mother boards for Socket A from Abit, Asus, Epox, and others could boost sales another 25%. Duron, if indeed sold out, could add another 25%. That gives a 90% increase. Solid execution in the second half of Q3 could push us to 100% and 3.6 million units, but it will be a stretch. Pravin.