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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tony Viola who wrote (3664)	8/4/2000 12:21:08 PM
From: AK2004	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Tony I just have heard two analysts discussing the same thing on bloomberg in addition to few more topics that we talked about in last few days. They must be reading SI to make their evaluations - boy we are in trouble :-)) Anyways they were talking about chip cycles extending over longer period of time as opposed to good old days were tech stocks (mpu included) had relatively short cycles. My take on it is that their opinion that explosive growth of tech is at end because that would be a sign of longer cycles . Regards -Albert

To: Tony Viola who wrote (3664)	8/4/2000 3:36:37 PM
From: Mani1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Tony re <<In the X86, and future evolutionary designs, CPU market (call it Intel and AMD and get it over with), there isn't nearly the possibility of overproducing and dumping. 2 companies only, both US (can't think of a good additional reason for that one) make it far less likely to have a big oversupply problem and dumping, as is possible in DRAM. >> Yes, well said, but.. Even with only two companies when the margin as high as they are, there is a lot of room left on the down side. If the second half demand does not materialize as predicted, INTC and AMD will be in big troubles. They both will miss estimates. Dell numbers will be the first indications. In the equipment front, AMAT will report next week. Their earnings will be great, no question about it. The key of course will be the bookings. I expect to see a slight down tick and that could cause a sell off in everything. On the bright side, so much of the selling (if not all) could already be over with. I don't think so. Do you still own AMAT? If so, what kind of booking are you expecting? Mani