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Technology Stocks : Safeguard Scientifics SFE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: tuck who wrote (4225)8/4/2000 10:04:41 PM
From: MGV  Respond to of 4467
 
Tuck,

I don't think I have ever seen SFE move on earnings. In my experience, its drivers are NAV and its IPOs. On that score, the higher the perceived quality and the better the IPO market, the stronger the impact on SFE.

I do think the IPO market has improved from April - June bottom. SFE likely will announce an IPO w/in the next 30-45 days. That will be a catalyst. The strength of its public companies in the wake of the positive earnings you noted also will help.

People like James Cramer have gone on record to question the incubator model. The sentiment for SFE, ICGE, and CMGI has been extremely negative, echoing Cramer's stated view.

Putting the positive near term catalysts together with the extremely negative sentiment, I think a buy here is timely.

We know the SFE model works. We know they have been able to take interests in solid private companies over the past 4 months with the tech washout. We know there will be a post-summer tech rally. In hindsight, $98 was above fair value. In my view, 60-70 is closer to fair value now.

That is the way I see it. I'll let you know what I find out about reporting date.

Cheers - Mark



To: tuck who wrote (4225)8/6/2000 3:31:17 PM
From: washcapsfan  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4467
 
Tuck

We have a shared interest in a certain PA based cancer-preventative company.

Given that, I am very curious as to your thoughts, if any, on CVSN. It is only a little higher than the SFE rights offering of a few years ago. However, it has enjoyed a unique FDA approval, as well as extension into a number of cancer screenings for Pathologists.

Thank you also to Sixers, for the SI membership. I have been luring on this thread since its inception, and have found the postings quite informative, particularly those of Michael Potter.



To: tuck who wrote (4225)8/8/2000 11:30:12 AM
From: MGV  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 4467
 
Tuck -

SFE reports on 8/11 at 10 AM. JP Morgan has a note out this morning on SFE. It says SFE's price is at 0.9X its NAV. The analyst "expects" SFE to trade to 1.5X by the end of the year with a price target by year end at $54. The biggest assumption behind the target is that "the IPO markets open prior to year end." It notes also that ICGE represents 57% of SFE's public portfolio and is trading at 1.5X its NAV.