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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: puborectalis who wrote (111225)	8/6/2000 9:14:40 PM
From: puborectalis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 120523

WorldFinanceNet.com Weekly IPO Commentary, Calendar, & Analyses By Dr. Irv DeGraw & Research Director John Fitzgibbon IPO Editor Aug. 07- Aug. 11, 2000 After last week’s record shattering calendar, you’d expect some sort of reprieve this week. But that is not the case. Undaunted that they were only able to get 27 of the scheduled 40 deals to market, underwriters are back with a 36 deal calendar. Unable to meet last week’s aggressive plans, they seem determined to prove they can’t do it for a second consecutive week. Of course, no one really expects this many deals to be completed. Many will merely rollover into the week of 8/14. The current calendar scheduling more resembles a feeding frenzy than a rational capital market. Underwriters appear to be merely throwing deals against the wall to see what sticks. The problem is that the deal schedule limits the amount of analysis which can be done. As a result, weak deals may be overpriced and strong deals missed. The debris will be cleaned up in the aftermarket. However, for the most part, investors are not buying into the frenzied atmosphere. As a result, we’re seeing rollovers and deal terms reductions. In general, from a quality perspective, this is an average week that is filled with very “average” deals. Few are “dregs” and few are “blockbusters”. Most are mid-level companies with good ideas and nascent fundamentals. Decent, but not great, none appear to have the strength to ignite the market. So we anticipate another week of generally moderate first day gains. Only McData appears to have the potential to be the blockbuster of the week. However, there will be at least two “attention-getter’s” this week. · The week’s suspense will be dominated by the AOL-Latin America deal. While tentatively scheduled to price on 8/7 for 8/8 trading, no one is certain. While we do expect the reduced terms deal to get done by Labor Day, we wouldn’t be surprised if it did not happen this week. · The most bizarre deal in some time will be Regeneration Technologies. A medical allograft supplier, it collects and sells human body parts for surgeries. It’s a real company and it’s profitable. And while it may be the butt of attention, it’s products are extremely beneficial. Five deals have been selected as Top Picks. But these are the “picks of a modest litter” and expectations of their performance is moderate. Another nine have been assigned to our Offerings to Watch List. Again, expectations are modest. This week’s Top Picks include: · Evolve Software - a professional services software maker. This is a speculative offering which is just emerging. But revenues are advancing rapidly, the firm has amassed an impressive list of blue chip clients, and it has built a substantial deferred revenue position. Expect a 20%-40% first day. · McData - a SAN fiber channel switch maker which is being carved out of EMC. This is a substantial operation growing at a 100+% rate and it's profitable. It is poised on the leading edge of an exploding industry. But it’s a carve out with a dilution overhang. So it's risky. Expect a 50+% first day. · Saturn Electronics - an electronics contract manufacturer. It has strong growth, profitability and better than average margins. It won’t set the world on fire but will be solid. Expect a 30%-50% first day. · VINA Technologies - integrates voice, video, and data communications for carriers. Firm appears poised for a breakout. It has 100+% growth and alliances with Lucent and PairGain. Expect a 50+% first day. · Large Scale Biology - a proteomic and genomic analysis tools developer. Speculative and still developing, firm is dominated by a Dow collaboration but may have long term value as an infrastructure provider. Expect a 20%-40% first day. Offerings to Watch list: · Equinix - building a network of independent Internet business exchange centers. Little more than a start-up, it has a top rate management team and blue chip investors. Very speculative but expect a new industry premium. Expect a 20%-40% first day. · Concours Group - an e-business strategy consultant. It's a substantial firm with 90+% revenue growth and is on track for profitability. A high profile reputation, Bob Dole is on the Board. Expect a 15%-35% first day. · Regeneration Technologies - harvests body parts for surgeries. A substantial and profitable firm, it has modest growth in a limited industry. Expect a novelty premium. Expect a 20%-40% first day. · TeleCommunications Systems - makes wireless Internet communications systems. This is a short term speculative play driven by industry momentum. Firm is dominated by Lucent, which is substituting its own products. Expect a 30%-50% first day, but may not be a keeper. · ServiceWare - an automated tech support software maker. Still a young firm, it has strong growth, a solid distribution channel, and a blue chip customer list. But it is speculative. Expect a 30%-50% first day. · Radview Systems - makes Internet application performance design tools. This is a speculative momentum play driven by anticipated demand in this sector. But the company is small, still emerging, and is unseasoned. A small deal, expect a 30%-50% first day. · H-Power - a PEM fuel cell developer. This is a speculative momentum play based on the sector and pending contracts worth $81 million. Expect a 30+% first day. · Lion BioScience - a German genomics bioinformatics firm. A leader in Western Europe, it’s very heavy pre-offering demand appears to be riding the overall sector strength. However, this is a non-Edgar SEC filing and further information is not available. · Pemstar - another electronics contract manufacturer. A substantial firm with strong growth and nascent profitability, pre-offering demand has been sharply accelerating. Expect a 20%-40% first day. For a further discussion of the upcoming week’s activities, see John Fitzgibbon’s On the Horizon - Week of August 7, 2000. Back to IPO Corner