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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (2585)	8/11/2000 10:15:43 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Everyone should take a look at the euro/yen cross post I am responding too, which was written on Wed and then take a look at a daily chart of the Sept Euro futures (EC0U) and the sept Yen futures (JY0U)........ speaking of Japan this is something I wrote on another thread.......... Mike, yes TUTS has a very strong chart and very good fundamentals and in a very hot sector DSL. that was one of the insights derived from the CSCO conference call......DSL is red hot. another important insights from the CSCO CC Japan is the strongest it's been in 5 years. Chambers was interviewed the other day and said that CSCO foresaw the slow down in Japan 4 and a half years ago. I think this is a very important macro story, especially for some of the key Japanese stocks. They are underowned by Japanese citizens, and are under weighted in just about all global portfolio's. that's part of the reason I started moving back in a week and a half ago. I mentioned buying SNE, NTT and NTDMY. NTDMY is NTT Docomo the very big wireless company. Japan is one of the earliest adopters of wireless and the penetration for wireless internet devices is greater and has a much quicker acceleration rate than anywhere in the world. it's down from 210 to 130 and I pretty sure we'll look back in a year or two and realize this was the steal of a life time. I noticed I've been able to mention my buying to tom, you and several others and have not received a single mention thats pretty much how I like it as I think I'm really thinking outside the box. for someone with patience like me, it was easy to wait for the .618 decline we saw in the Nikkei starting in early april, it went down from over 21000 to 15700. Bearshark called for this decline several months ago in the market lab and suggested it would be the fantastic buying opportunity for Japanese equities. John

To: John Pitera who wrote (2585)	8/11/2000 11:02:39 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Futures Researc PETER G. GRENNAN (08/11/00) STOCK INDEX FUTURES MARKET COMMENT . Although NYSE advance/decline line was not very weak yesterday, it looks as if the current rally phase from the July 28th 1424 low is over. The cash market should try to rally but the futures are going to have a tough time keeping pace because SP Sep closed with 1405 spread above SP 500 cash index and fair value spread this morning is 755. The fact that sp is holding this overvalued spread on Globex means stocks should open on plus side. However, resistance on SP comes in around its 21 day ma 1480'sh. So we put resistance 1480-1485, so any moves over 1480 are going to be tough to hold. If by chance SP happens to move over 1485.50, target would be 1488-1490. Support looks like in area of yest 1470 target, so call is 1465'sh to 1472. Under 1464.50, targets 1450-1455. Fair Value+755;Buy+915;Sell+595. . STOCK INDEXES TRADING RANGES (08/11/00) ****COMPUTER TRADING RANGES** DJU.(SEP) 10860 - 11080 DJU SPUGLX SPU YXU NDU SPU.(SEP) 1459.00 -1488.00 HIGH 2 11020 1492.50 1490.10 666.47 3752.17 YXU.(SEP) 655.00 - 668.00 HIGH 1 10996 1483.40 1482.20 665.18 3691.33 MDU.(SEP) 495.00 - 517.00 PIVOT 10970 1475.70 1475.10 663.97 3654.17 RLU.(SEP) 491.00 - 514.00 LOW 1 10946 1466.60 1467.20 662.68 3593.33 KVU.(SEP) 1095.00 -1114.00 LOW 2 10920 1458.90 1460.10 661.47 3556.17 NDU.(SEP) 3556.00 -3715.00 OSAKA NKU.(SEP) 15890-16410 MARKET VANE AS OF (08-08-00) 33 VS 30 . 21-DAY M.A. BASED ON YESTERDAY'S CLOSES******* STOCHASTICS SP(SPU) YXU..659.71 SPU..1481.37 DJU..10809.00 NDU..3793.40 . HOURLY DAILY WKLY OEX..799.06 SPX..1468.89 DOW..10731.70 NDX..3759.50 %K 17.03 71.59 49.64 10-DAY TRIN..( .911) SP 500 SEP (SPU) %D 13.55 63.87 56.76 10-DAY NAD...(+1311) FAIR VALUE+755 . BUY BUY SELL DJU FAIR VALUE+54 BUY PROGRAMS+915 . 08/10 08/02 7/28 NDU FAIR VALUE+2313 SELL PROGRAMS+595 . .NASDAQ 100 COMMENT 08/11/00 NASDAQ 100 GLOBEX SYMBOL for SEP (DNU)** . NASDAQ 100 GLOBEX HIGH 3644.50;LOW 3606.00;CLOSE 3609.00 . ND gradually broke and tested lower target levels yest. ND momentum looks weaker than SP. Make support 3590-3620. There's very little support between 3585 and 3500. With Tues/Wed lows being 3691/3687 and yest high being 3715, resistance should be any move into this area. ----------------------- I encourage anyone who has not worked with the 21 day moving average in terms of support and resistance to try adding it to your TA tool kit for a month, and in a variety of markets and let me know what you think of it. John

To: John Pitera who wrote (2585)	8/13/2000 11:09:29 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Yes, the Euro Will Rebound. Someday. August 13, 2000 By JONATHAN FUERBRINGER -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Will the euro ever rally? That is a fair question, given the currency's tumble this summer. Despite predictions that it was time for a rebound in the euro, the unified currency of 11 European nations, it is back within striking distance of new lows, bedeviling American investors by erasing gains that they may have made in European equities. After a rally of 8.5 percent from its record low of 88.95 cents on May 4, the euro has fallen 6.4 percent from its recent peak of 96.49 cents, on June 16. It dropped below 90 cents on Wednesday and finished the week at 90.33 cents. That is down 22.6 percent from its debut value of $1.1667 in January 1999. "It's embarrassing to be a currency forecaster these days," said Anne Mills, senior foreign economist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Company. She is not alone. There is no easy answer to why the euro remains so weak. The economies of the countries behind the euro are nowgrowing at 3 to 4 percent a year. They are at an earlier stage in their expansion cycle, compared with that of the United States, so they should be able to keep perking along. Their stock markets, while not taking off, are doing better than American equities so far this year. And the European Central Bank has moved to support the euro and to keep inflationary pressures in check, raising its benchmark interest rate by 1.75 percentage points since November. Many analysts expect that inflation and euro worries will prompt another rate increase late this month or in September. "I find it very difficult to explain the softness of the euro from the European side," said Nicholas P. Sargen, global market strategist for J. P. Morgan's private clients. The euro has also received help from the United States in the last year, as the Federal Reserve has lifted its benchmark interest rate by 1.75 points, aiming to put a brake on American economic growth. A slowing United States economy should make a rebounding Europe more attractive, especially in a year when the American stock market indexes are in negative territory. But all that came of this was a six-week rally that started in early May and got its real lift when the Fed raised its target for the federal funds rate by half a point, to 6.50 percent, on May 16. So what happened? While analysts are not confident of their explanations, they put most of the blame on the strong performance of the United States economy and investors' consequent unwillingness to bet on Europe when American has given them so much. Rather than worrying that the American economy will slow sharply, investors seem to be betting that the Fed can direct the economy to a soft landing, with growth remaining relatively robust and inflation continuing to be restrained. German jobs data, released last week, may have also created concern; the number of unemployed fell by 9,000 in July, but that was below the predictions of 10,000 to 25,000. The unemployment rate slipped to 9.5 percent, from 9.6 percent. "What has made us wrong," Ms. Mills of Brown Brothers Harriman said, "is the appetite of Europeans for direct and portfolio investment in the United States." Karen E. Parker, director of currency research at Chase Securities, pointed out that European companies were still behind their United States competitors in restructuring and in productivity gains. That, too, is probably undermining the euro, she said. Even the euro pessimists have been surprised. Ms. Parker has been bearish on the currency since its inception. But she had predicted that it would rally this year, in part because the Fed was pushing interest rates higher and the American economy's rapid growth was expected to slow. Last December, she forecast that the euro would be at $1.10 by the end of this year. Now she predicts that the best the euro can do is 92 cents by year-end and 95 cents by next June. "The most that we are counting on is that the euro has bottomed out," she said. But she is not ruling out a brief side trip to a new low. "This is one of those major moves that simply take longer to turn around than people think," Ms. Mills said. She said she felt sure of one development -- although, wisely, she declined to forecast the timing: "Sometime in the next five years, we will be doing the same search for reasons why the dollar is so weak." ---------------------------- JJP's note: interesting that this article says that one of the primary reasons for the euro's weakness agaist the USDOllar is the european appetite for US equities. and yet they attribute the Euro's rally to the May 16th FED rate hike. The US stockmarket, especially the NASD was selling off in mid may and the NASD reached it's last low on May 25th before engaging in the very significant rally since then . the article fails to state this NASD decline could have helped the euro rally and note the boarderline silly argument the 175 basis pt rate hike in europe should have the opposite effect to the 175 basis pt rate increase in the US. John