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To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (107035)	8/9/2000 5:05:26 PM
From: Alomex	Respond to of 164684

Morningstar.com: Who's Been Buying--and Who's Dumped--Amazon He sold his stake in Amazon in June, getting at least $33 per share--and possibly as much as $58-- when, he said, it became clearer to him that it was really nothing more than a ``glorified catalogue retailer.'' Pardon the chest thumping, but you heard it here first. I said so recently in: Message 14110130 and I said so a long time ago: Message 2144321 Message 2740577 Interestingly, in the second posting I say that Amazon at $5 a share is fully valued. Just recently working out the numbers after three years worth of growth, I get a price target of $6-10 per share.

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (107035)	8/10/2000 10:24:15 AM
From: Eric Wells	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

I believe you are being overly critical of the market and many investors. Glenn - I disagree. Cisco is a great company - I stated this in my post. But there is an appropriate price for everything. A high wealth individual may be willing to pay $1 million for a Ferrari, a great car - but to pay $100 million for a Ferrari, well I think there are few individuals that would value the car that highly. Even with Cisco's incredible revenue and income growth, there is an appropriate value for the company. It seems that most investors in the market feel comfortable with a trailing PE of 125, and an estimated 2001 PE of 80. I don't feel comfortable with these figures. As Cisco continues to grow, the risk of the company's growth rates declining increases (at least in my view). Whether Cisco's current stock price reflects this risk - well, I don't think it does. Of course any company is worth what investors are willing to pay for it's stock. It seems to me that with the declines in the market this year, investors who have lost money are going to demand greater justification for market value - that is, I believe that investors will demand much higher earnings growth for companies with high PEs. If the economy is indeed slowing, then higher earnings growth, in general, will be more difficult to attain - and therefore, companies with high PEs may see their PEs decline due to a decline in their stock price. In short, I feel current investor sentiment may put downward pressures on PEs of companies that have high PEs. Of course, Cisco is not alone in the category of companies with high PEs. The intent of my post yesterday was also to comment on what I saw as an interesting phenomenon: in my view, there were a large number of investors that were "pinning their hopes" on the Cisco numbers. You may not have seen this - but every financial web site I logged into on Tuesday afternoon contained commentary on the impact of the Cisco numbers. If you happened to switch on CNBC any time during the day on Tuesday, the talk was Cisco. It seemed as though the market (at least the Nasdaq), still suffering from a pretty substantial decline since mid-July, was looking for a good report from Cisco to turn things around. In my view, this is an indication of a market that is not on solid footing. Of course this assessment is based on my evaluation of the "psychological environment", and may be worth nothing. It just seems to me that if investors were more confident of the prices of stocks in general, then the earnings report of one company would not make much difference. It's interesting, though, that even with Cisco's "good" report, the stock is down - and it continues to fall. My remaining 5 put contracts have already doubled in value since the time I made my first post on this subject yesterday. I'll be looking to sell them soon. Thanks, -Eric