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To: RR who wrote (28409)	8/10/2000 1:04:08 AM
From: abuelita	Respond to of 35685

Thanks Rick. Needed that reminder. Buy on pullbacks - keep it steady - wait for the right time. Good luck to you too. Rose

To: RR who wrote (28409)	8/10/2000 5:37:46 AM
From: bela_ghoulashi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

Spelling out the positives...a good post from the txbanker club on Yahoo: Macroeconomic perspective strike_de (50/M/Munich, Germany) 8/10/00 5:25 am Thanks, khu888, for pointing out all the stocks that shot up. I own most of them, and very much overweighted in TQNT, PWAV, SSTI, RATL, AHAA and LTXX, so I had a sensationally good day with these undervalued, high-growth stocks. Regarding the pessimism on this board, especially the TA pessimism (with the sole exception of rahod), I can only postulate that this feeling is shared by the vast majority of investors. Meanwhile, the fundamentals continue to improve dramatically : -- Sensational productiviy -- Interest rates have already peaked. People are now not only predicting an end to rate hikes but a possible discount rate cut in the Spring -- Wage inflation is moderate -- Corporate investment spending is growing from strength to strength. Overall capex rose 17 %, while the IT component rose a staggering 28 % YOY !!! (= great for forward earnings and GDP expansion, as well as being deflationary on the supply/demand side) -- Robust corporate earnings this Q exceeded expectations -- Bond yields historically low (even at the short end) -- Dollar very, very strong (= inflation killer) -- Cash levels of funds/institutions are at historically very high levels, with more cash flowing in daily, also from overseas in view of investors' confidence in the U.S. economy -- Europe and Japan are growing strongly (Japan's export volumes are up 15 % YOY owing to buoyant Asian demand, and consumer spending there has turned sharply up) -- The Dow Utilities have blasted to new highs, and Dow Theory is by no means discredited -- The only fly in the ointment (excessively robust U.S. durable goods orders) was an aberration due to the volatile aircraft component, and unlikely to be repeated. Why ? Because the overall New Orders measure in the NAPM survey dropped below 50 % for the first time since Dec. '98. I could go on and on and on ......... The fundamentals have never been so good. Current and rampant pessimism is due to the universal assumption that stocks will fall during the summer as has always been the case since 1952, and that we'll have a traditionally strong Autumn (Fall !) thereafter. Though it's dangerous to go against such a strong statistical reality and the overwhelmingly negative TA from Rich and Rocket, I believe the fundamentals will outweigh the technical problems and prevent a plunge to 3500 (and certainly not to 2500 !) Maybe recent disappointments are needed to persuade hold-outs to throw in the towel. As I wrote earlier, a lengthy period of sideways action, which renders speculative out-of-the-money options worthless, can be more effective in eliminating speculative excesses than a massive plunge followed by a rapid rise. It's the speculative equivalent to the death of a thousand cuts. That's where I believe we are today. Whether I'm right or wrong, I know that the Naz highs are going to get taken out on strong volume sometime this year, so the risk is on the upside, and there's very little downside risk for non-margined B&H investors. jmho, Strike