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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (8232)	8/10/2000 11:29:53 AM
From: Erwin Sanders	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10309

<<Let me ask the many long term WIND investors on the thread - do you think WIND is more transparent today than last year?>> It is some three years since some of AB's posts convinced me to invest in Wind, so if 3 yrs qualifies me as a l-t investor: No, I do not think Wind is any more transparent today than last year. Why not: 1. The foul up regarding last quarter's earnings release, when Wind did not at all make it clear whether their earnings forecasts included one-time gains on sale of LBRT. I suspect this foul up to be a major cause of the stock price decline. I still don't have a clue as to whether the forecasts for the upsoming quarter release include more of these one time gains. 2. Wind's continued failure to attract the attention of first-tier investment analysts from ML, GS, or MSDW. 3. Wind is a no-mention on any article on the hottest topic of the day - wireless. We think that Wind is into wireless in a big way but are not sure. How many times have we speculated about a relationship with QCOM and do we know anything more about this now than say six months ago? As you can see Ramsey, I am as frustrated as you are. However, I will give it one more year for things to improve and for the integration of the acquisitions to start really working. The sudden disappearance of AB is also a little puzzling. He usually gives us some warning. For example, last time he hinted that he was off to the jungle for a while. We now know which jungle that was. I remain unconvinced of AB's explanation that the main reason for Wind's lackluster performance (compared to our and his expectations) was the Asian Crisis. Clearly, if this were true, we would have felt the very healthy rebound by now. Erwin

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (8232)	8/10/2000 1:21:17 PM
From: Joe Smith	Respond to of 10309

Ramsey--My two cents again if you don't mind. Your complaints are mostly focused on issues that were relevant 1 1/2 years ago. There has a huge disappointment with this company then. There is no way around that and it still haunts us but I think it haunts you so much that you can't see the present and future clearly IMHO. You say that you are running out of patience, yet the stock has made a spectacular recovery since last Spring and still is holding quite a bit of that gap. (It is disappointing how much it has given back.) Your concerns about i2o are a good example of your lost in the past perspective. Its slow ramp-up, something beyond WIND's control, was disappointing and brought the stock down. Now, I believe i2o is successful, but in comparison to the size of the company, it is far less relevant today than it was 1 1/2 years ago. Same with TMS. This is just one amongst a broad range of offerings at a company several times larger than when TMS and i2o were introduced. Not to say that I am applauding WIND for its execution. I would hope to see more growth as we go. In the present, we have a company that has absorbed its largest competitor without a disaster so far. They also are being steered by a new CEO. This has been a time of transition. It is not surprising that the transition has absorbed so much energy. I am thankful that there has been no disaster. Much of the sell-off this Summer has been due to the fear of a warning especially in the wake of profit-taking by the CFO. We seem to have weathered that storm. Another huge storm is the sell-off in the SOXX, something that is responsible for much of WIND's poor performance IMHO. What we are looking at today is an uncertain time because of transition and an uncertain time in the market as well. The failures of 2 years ago are becoming less and less relevant. I believe that WIND has moved on. Wall St. showed great optimism about WIND's future this Spring. I have seen little to erase that rosy feeling except a falling stock price. WIND has Kevin Landis, Matt Belkin, Mike Kwatinetz etc. apparently behind them. I include myself amongst that esteemed crowd. BTW, I made this portfolio in February I believe. It rose smartly and since has plummeted. Look where WIND stands next to many of what I consider to be its peers. siliconinvestor.com

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (8232)	8/10/2000 3:26:14 PM
From: James Connolly	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 10309

Re:Let me ask the many long term WIND investors on the thread - do you think WIND is more transparent today than last year? I too have been here about 3 years. From my point of view I would say the following: 1. Press releases are about even, unchanged. 2. Conference Calls. WIND did make a big effort this time last year, remember the CC where they gave all the I2O data. Since then the CC's have become less informative. I blame some of this on the quality of questions coming from the analysts. I think some good questions would draw them out a little more. 3. The analyst day and the presentations was definitely a high point. Overall I would say unchanged to improved slightly. "the main reason for Wind's lackluster performance (compared to our and his expectations) was the Asian Crisis. Clearly, if this were true, we would have felt the very healthy rebound by now" Erwin, WIND has experienced a healthy rebound. Revenue growth has recovered from the low 20% region to the 35%+ region with perhaps the chance of it hitting 40% this year. The problem for WIND now is it's low op margins and high costs. If WIND can get it's costs and op margins back to previous levels then the stock will start to fly. I think the op margin is projected to be around 12% for this year as compared to 20% in previous years. No doubt the drop is related to the merger. Regards JC.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (8232)	8/13/2000 5:19:50 PM
From: Snowshoe	Respond to of 10309

Ramsey, lately I've been reviewing the embedded story in terms of the Gorilla Game by Geoffrey Moore. In Chapter 7 (revised edition), he lays down the following timing rules: Rule 1: If the category is application software, buy in the bowling alley. Rule 2. If the category is enabling hardware or software, buy at the start of the tornado. WIND sells enabling software and I think we can both agree that it is still in the "bowling alley" (niche market) stage. So according to strict GG theory, one would not have been in WIND during the past four years. OTOH, with the speed of today's market, one could easily be on vacation and miss the discovery of a new gorilla. So some people who understand the GG will try to scope out potential gorillas in advance. The question is, does the embedded market really have the potential to become a mass market that can support a true gorilla, as Allen Benn advocates? Or is the embedded market going to stabilize in what Moore (Chapter 2) calls a "bowling alley forever" state, which just continues along as a series of niches? I don't know the answer, but it seems to me that this is the key issue with WIND that gets to the heart of your questions.