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Technology Stocks : Semiconductor and Semi-Equipment Analysts - Their Calls -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FJB who wrote (97)	8/11/2000 1:17:34 AM
From: TI2, TechInvestorToo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 195

Robert said,<I realize you were joking around a bit, but there really is nothing preventing companies from stopping at the fab shell phase, which is only 10% of the cost of a $2B 300mm fab.> And that is exactly what happened in the last semi capex crash a couple of years ago. The shells were built and ready to recieve equipment and then the SEA crisis pulled the plug. It is also the reason why the chip companies ramped so fast and why the capex companies did so well in last year. Those empty shells were/are finally being filled up. TI2

To: FJB who wrote (97)	8/11/2000 9:34:50 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Respond to of 195

>>I realize you were joking around a bit, but there really is nothing preventing companies from stopping at the fab shell phase, which is only 10% of the cost of a $2B 300mm fab.<< Sure, but only if they know that the demand that justifies the fab won't be there. Most of the time that goes into building a fab is for equipment installation and qualification. Once those steps are underway, it's a lot harder to put the fab on hold. The "build out faster" behavior was quite common in the last downturn. I'm not convinced that human nature has changed. >>DRAM sales reached a record high in bit terms in 1996. They reach a "record high" every year.<< That's exactly my point. Demand, which will supposedly save us from cycles, remained quite strong during the worst downturn in 20 years. Katherine

To: FJB who wrote (97)	8/29/2000 8:36:41 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 195

I believe the headline should read sold out for '00 and '01, but WOW anyway: TSMC says it's sold out of foundry capacity for 2001 and 2002 By Mark LaPedus Semiconductor Business News (08/29/00, 07:02:34 PM EDT) SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSMC) here today disclosed that the company is already sold out of its worldwide wafer-foundry capacity for both 2000 and 2001, with demand remaining robust at least until 2003. "Demand is outstripping supply [in the foundry business]," said Edward Ross, president of TMSC's U.S. subsidiary, TSMC North America, at a panel discussion at the Taiwan Semiconductor Day conference here. The conference is a one-day event sponsored by the Taiwan government and CMP Media, the parent company of SBN. "In the short term, I don't see anything on the horizon that will slow [the foundry business] down," said Ross, who is based in San Jose. In fact, business is so good that TSMC is fully booked at least until the end of 2001, Ross said. "The demand for 2001 is greater than our capacity," he said in an interview with SBN. "We've allocated our capacity [for 2000]. In 2001, our capacity has been allocated. In 2001, we're already sold out." The company's disclosure comes to no surprise to industry observers and analysts. With the general trend towards outsourcing in the semiconductor industry, foundry vendors have been scrambling to meet huge OEM demand since the beginning of last year. Other pure-play foundry vendors, including Singapore's Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing Pte. Ltd. and Taiwan's United Microelectronics Corp., are also reporting robust demand for their respective services. Foundry companies, in fact, are riding a huge wave. In total, the worldwide demand for 8-inch wafers is expected to jump from 10.267 million units in 2000 to 12.3 million units, according to estimates from Dataquest Inc. of San Jose. "The foundry business is one of the fastest growing industries in the electronics market," Ross said in a presentation about Taiwan's foundry industry at the conference. "At this point, we don't see a change in terms of supply and demand. People are saying that that we could see [a capacity shortage] for the next three years." To meet demand, TSMC is ramping up its fab capacity at a frenetic pace. The company will boost its total production of 8-inch wafers from 3.4 million units in 2000, to 4.7 million units in 2001. By 2001, in fact, TSMC claims it will be the world's largest IC company in terms of total wafer capacity, surpassing the likes of Hyundai, Hitachi, Intel, Toshiba, NEC, STMicroelectronics, Samsung, and others.