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Strategies & Market Trends : Piffer OT - And Other Assorted Nuts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (48475)	8/11/2000 1:29:42 PM
From: Original Mad Dog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63513

I would think that you would see weakness in the semi equipment makers before the actual semi cycle topped out. I'm not sure I understand your statement here. If you are saying that we would see weakness in the semi equipment stocks before the actual cycle tops out, I agree, that has happened in the past and should be expected. What has happened, at least to the two semi equipment stocks that I follow, is that the stocks have already been hammered (LRCX from 56 to 21; AMAT from 115 to 68) even though the actual current financial performance has been ok. Take a look at the LRCX chart in particular; I have been poised to reenter on sign of a reversal in sentiment, but those signs just don't seem ready to appear. So shouldn't we be interpreting the behavior of these semi equipment stocks as meaning the cycle has (or is about to) peak??? Or should we wait until the semi equipment makers actually stop selling product???

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (48475)	8/11/2000 4:02:33 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 63513

stock prices turn down before earnings do...the old saying is that the stock market is looking at the economy 9 months into the future. Since we don't usually know the future, hence the trending errors in stock movements. I just mention as AMAT is down from what 116 to a low of 71 recently

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (48475)	8/12/2000 3:49:54 PM
From: Rich1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 63513

JXM Everyday IBD does a sector analysis and the best 30 stocks in the sector. Today's issue Monday August 14, 2000 the sector is IBD Electronics-Semiconductor Mfg. Group They rate Quarterly Earnings % change and Quarterly sales % change, A+,A, A- funds in Stock, EPS, RS, SMR, Accumulate/Distribution. In the Group are companies like AMCC, Broadcom, PMC-Sierra, Cree, ARm Holdings,ADI,TQNT,ACTL, XLNX, VTSS and QLGC. And the leader of the group is .....(the envelope please) Rambus..