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Strategies & Market Trends : Piffer OT - And Other Assorted Nuts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (48478)	8/11/2000 1:41:07 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 63513

Is the semi business as cyclical as it once was? This is a serious question. I thought at one point that PC sales drove the semi's and there was something of a ripple effect everytime Intel offered a new chip. As simple as that sounds, thats what it came down to.

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (48478)	8/11/2000 1:41:42 PM
From: Original Mad Dog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63513

Let's not bring CSCO into this. We can all agree they are an overstuffed pig that will one day come down to earth with a giant splat, leaving a crater bigger than that meteor that hit Siberia a century or so ago and wiping out half of the luxury housing in California in the process. <g> As for the semi equipment makers and the semi cycle, I think at worst it is pausing, and that both the equipment makers and selected semi stocks are great buys at or near present levels. MCHP, the one I have been shilling for (sorry), just bought a new plant, which hardly suggests that they believe the cycle is peaking. Plus their rev growth is about 50 percent annually and 12 percent sequentially. Others are reporting good results too. I also think that the extreme cyclicality of the semi industry is going to be much less pronounced going forward. I'll try to collect my reasons why into one of those long-winded posts soon. MD