Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Western Digital (WDC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: &_Son who wrote (10627)	8/11/2000 3:39:02 PM
From: fiberman	Respond to of 11057

Thanks for the posting. I do understand your feeling and opinion. I do respect it, but I do not agree with it at all. I think WDC's past management ruined the company, by pulling out of the sectors which were profirtable, and running dead on with the Japs, and Koreans, as well as Maxtor, and QNTM on negative margin commdity products, while WDC's prducts, management, manufacturing plants, etc. were inferior to the competition. The stock price dived, while Chucky baby, and his crook buddies, inclduing that lady who bailed out of the company, were unload their shares. Matt comes on borad, which looked promising at the beginning, but the first thing the dude does is gets ride of the only promising divsion, eneterprsie, and concentrates of commodity products. That is like trying to sell tea in China. Guess who will DELL and CPQ, and GTW will squeeze next week for better prices???? WDC's days are numbered, IMHO. Good luck! I wish I had the guts to short WDC even now, but I am SO SICK of this sector that I just rather forget it.

To: &_Son who wrote (10627)	8/11/2000 7:44:21 PM
From: Stitch	Respond to of 11057

&_Son; I could agree with you that Massingill has taken some vital steps to correct the course of the troubled ship that WDC had become. And, unlike Fiberman, I am not so critical of Haggerty or Kathy Braun except for some specific decisions like the failed relationship with IBM and the flawed execution in the enterprise segment. However, I do the problems in the drive industry are systemic. I tire easily of the very vocal criticisms that single out specific companies or individual managers for blame for the failures that this industry shares rather broadly in my opinion. However, we can't be surprised by it. Fiberman is vocal evidence that WDC, and the whole industry, has failed miserably in the number one assignment of returning shareholder value. While I think it is commendable for you to believe in, and feel pride in, your work and your employer, quite honestly your litany of FLBA(future looks bright ahead) rings rather empty to me. You write: <<We will be FIRST to market with the 20GB / Platter 7200rpm drives...no question about it. In fact, I will estimate that we will beat the competition by more than 7 weeks. We will be Time to market leaders with the 5400rpm series too.>> My response is "so what?". The incredible rate of improvement in disk drive technology over the last several years has not led to even a semblance of fair return to investors. You are simply describing (and perhaps prescribing) more of the same. This does not impress. You also wrote: <<Our roadmap is absolutely one of the strongest.>> This makes me feel nauseated. If I hear "roadmap" one more time I think I will puke on the nearest copy of a disk drive forecast I can get my hands on. Show me a map that gets you on the off-ramp to a new heading towards new and differentiated products then you can earn my interest (and investment dollars) again. And, please, do not even try to sell me on the NAS venture. That space is already too crowded, and it looks to me like the DD companies are looking for another market to spoil. How about some original thinking for a change? You also wrote:<< Maybe not first (maybe we will) BUT, we will be amongst the strongest to emerge from this new line. Will this cure our and the industries problem, no. But it is another very large step in the right direction.>> Not very convincing. And I have to disagree completely with the last sentence. It is just more of the same IMO. You also wrote: <<You lost money on WD, for that (I) sympathize, but I feel the real problem is that you lost faith in a company that you did should not have.>> Talk about adding insult to injury, I cannot think of a more pure example of it. You closed with <<Good luck on future investments.>> to which I reply: Good luck on your future job search. Best, Stitch

To: &_Son who wrote (10627)	8/12/2000 4:14:52 PM
From: Tom Simpson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11057

<<but I feel the real problem is that you lost faith in a company>> As Stitch has pointed out, in the circumstances this statement is just plain silly. What the root trouble actually is will be found in the physics of MR based head making. The turkey(s) we are all looking for are those dumb engineers who figured out solutions to the problems of making and using MR/GMR heads, because it is that which enabled our current arial density growth rate. Neither management, investors, wall street, or anyone else truly anticipated and forecast this course of events....such differentiations as can be made revolve around how quickly and in what way they have reacted to it as the scale of it unfolded. So there you have it....the true culprits are those dumb engineers who thought they were being smart and doing good things for the world by raising the slope of the density growth curve to 100% or so. If we want emotional satisfaction for the negative consequences to us we can perhaps find solace in the knowledge that they were probably paid off, for doing such superb work, using stock options :o) If we need a specific company to blame, IBM stands out for having developed MR technology in the first place. Actually its probably all a long term plot hatched up by those brilliant IBM Fellows to destroy their competition in this industry and the full scope of it is not yet apparent. Its pointless to beat the industry over the head for making a peddling units at these prices. When you have too much unit capacity, you have to pump more units through or write it off and mothball it or both. There is money that has to be lost because it was spent on floor space and machinery no longer needed; the only real choice is how this money is lost. Everyone has been in this swamp and the only real way out is to quit the business. Eventually, this will probably end; unless one anticipates a 100% density growth rate indefinitely. More likely it will drop and we will find everyone caught flatfooted and short capacity. Then we will have something new to berate management about even as we get rich from the shortage. Some executives and companies have managed relatively better than others....this is true. But no one, not a single one, has sidestepped around the swamp.....and holding Veritas in their stock portfolio doesn't count as a proper sidestep for Seagate either, though it did keep their stockholders out of the swamp, for which Luzco is now claiming his unjust reward. With pessimism so deep here in these threads it is perhaps time to begin carefully watching the total platters shipped curve for positive signs. Good things will follow those signs. Best Regards.....Tom

To: &_Son who wrote (10627)	8/14/2000 11:05:51 PM
From: tony guerriero	Respond to of 11057

I do not often get a chance to read whats happening on this tread, however you comments concerning WDC caught my attention. I must say, I did not think there was anyone left loyal to WDC- you proved me wrong. I use to follow this tread daily a couple of years ago but it got really stupid and non-productive. My question is simple, back in March you discussed WDC perhaps going to $12-15 by year end whats your outlook now? Do you think Connex will provide WDC with a sustainable future or is it the contrary in your opinion. Look forward to hearing your comments!!!!!!!! Anthony Guerriero