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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (82895)	8/11/2000 9:04:08 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Hi Earlie, I keep trying to point out that--althought it could turn around instantly-- the money supply figures as reported by the Fed are rapidly tightening. Whether this is deliberate fed policy, or some incipient credit caution by banks, or what, I do not know, but the figures are --let's say-- interesting: bog.frb.fed.us If you scroll down you see M2 at under 2% and a big negative number for M1 (which doesn't mean much any more because of bank sweeps). Given current inflation and productivity numbers, this is contractive. If the Fed hold this line for a few months, or if this is a self-reinforcing contraction of bank credit, the markets will begin to react as in late 1998, and any weaknesses in banks could become obvious.

To: Earlie who wrote (82895)	8/11/2000 11:47:50 PM
From: Don Lloyd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie - Welcome back! [... Bill Parrish has written the very best material relating to this topic...] For a contrary view, see : Message 14185021 It's hard to make a convincing economic theory argument when the appropriate foundation didn't exist until 1871, and EVERYONE knows economics, so it never needs to be taught. Adam Smith didn't have the necessary theory either. No matter how counter-intuitive the economic theory method appears, don't dismiss it out of hand, as I've so far used ski resorts, state lottery tickets and college football booster clubs to reach the same conclusions without the economics. -g- Regards, Don