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Technology Stocks : Net Perceptions, Inc. (NETP) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Carl R. who wrote (2673)	8/12/2000 9:20:02 AM
From: rupert1	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2908

Carl: I don't know what the composition of the DOT is - I suspect it is heavily weighted by B2C dot-coms. NETP is not a dot.com and it is not restricted to B2C. We probably agree on the bottom line about NETP being sound and growing, but disagree on the how the market will value it on the way. I would be interested in your observations on post #2672. On the surface, you and I, and most of us, had to pay a lot more to own a share in 1999 than we would have today. As your post on the DOT index demonstrates, statistics can lie <g>. I am not sure why there were only 15 million shares in 2Q 1999 (I got the figure from the Form 10). I know about the 2.24 KD1, and the 2 million SPO shares and there were some others for employee compensation. But this brings it down to about 22 million. Also although the extra shares have diluted the value per share, in exchange we got KD1s revenues and assets and the SPO $110 million in cash. Both of these assets should increase the rate of growth and, ultimately, earnings per share. So I suppose it comes back to valuing NETP on rate of growth in revenues and future earnings.

To: Carl R. who wrote (2673)	8/12/2000 11:43:14 AM
From: Sofa Kingdom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2908

Carl R., You should probably graph skirt length and the width of the dark band around wooly bear catapillars as part of your analysis. There's a clear correlation there too. Victor's analysis was excellent comparing the relative differences in business models. Internet stocks and Biotechs as sectors may run together for a while, but does it mean they're related? Both are relatively high risk models and the get-rich-quick crowd seems to run fast to rumors of big cash in both areas. I'm convinced these risk players run without the benefit of much knowledge. Have you noticed the big swings and dips when a competing company dips. There are times when the dip at one company is directly related to their own folly. They goofed up with their books or got sued or something strictly related to their company alone, but competitor stocks take a dip along with them. My neighbor's kid crashed his car, does that mean everyone in the whole neighborhood are a bunch of bad drivers? Sector dips notwithstanding. There are times when smart money realizes that a sector isn't growing as reported and pulls out. This may be what you are seeing. Simultaneous but truly unrelated. The thundering herds were grazing on rumors in both sectors and got spooked by a high flying Greenspan. Lots of running, all seemingly in one direction. Upon closer view, not away from anything and not toward anything, just running. You've discovered an interesting oddity. Do you think its worth investing on? Good luck. But wait, I just found two wooly bears with wide bands, it must mean that the tech sector is in for a huge run. No, no, I saw three girls with really short skirts right after. False alarm. On the NETP front- Its ironic that you are applying seems-to-me style correlation analysis to NETP. NETP has a complex product. Big time statistical analysis used for predictive extrapolation (for software to lead people through web pages). Powerful and expensive, not for the timid or uninformed. Lots of companies are interested in what software like NETP's can do for them. Not as many can put cash on the barrel head and have the programming staff to really make NETP products work for them (not to mention analyze the predictive results). Its a fair amount of stacked skill and money. If they do buy and the product works for them are they going to give away their secret by giving NETP a testimonial? I wonder. It's a nut NETP will have to crack if they want broad exposure. -Sofa Kingdom

To: Carl R. who wrote (2673)	9/27/2000 11:15:26 AM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2908

So far the DOT index is continuing to behave much as the Biotech index did back in the early 90's after the Biotech crash. The graphs continue to be eerily similar. We are approaching major support on the DOT index at about 700, and should be ready for a bounce based on the historical comparison. Earlier I predicted a move to about 900 by the end of January, and I still think that will happen. Short term I think we are due for a bounce here to about 750, followed by a re-test of the lows after the election before a December-January rally. Carl