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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (36692)	8/12/2000 10:24:20 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 70976

Are you presuming that the former manufacturing model will be used to ramp up capacity? Or do you accept that more and more of the manufacturing is outsourced? i.e. - It won't take anywhere near as much CapEx to ramp up from $15B to $20B as it would have in prior cycles, nor will there be as much of an impact on margins. Not only is AMAT's equipment supporting fundamental business changes around the world, it's own business is also benefitting from some of those same fundamental changes. Ian.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (36692)	8/13/2000 3:14:17 PM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

As far a public consumption is concerned, Morgan joins those posters who don't beleieve the cycle will end. So, his $20B is questionable. Since capacity is curently $14-15B, I am not sure that they will achieve margin improvement bringing on added capacity at the end of the cycle and not sure they will reach $20B. Are you putting the CEO's opinion on par with posters? If so, I beg to differ. I followed AMD's conference calls during the entire 12 to 18 mos of the Asian crisis and never found him to be anything but completely honest and certainly never to over-state his company's position during that period of time. Why would he over-state now? I would like to hear from old-timers who know Morgan far better. Pat