Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Western Digital (WDC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stitch who wrote (10632)	8/14/2000 12:24:15 PM
From: fiberman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11057

Hey old pal!!! I see you are still hanging around this crazy market segment. Are you still living in the Far East? What is your short term outlook for this sector? Who do you see as the aggressor, and who do you see as the loser? What is your take of Conner Technology these days? I went to a party on Saturday night over at my friend's house who used to be a big shot over at TeraStor. He had nothing positive to say about the sector at all. He sure is glad as hell that he has found a good job with a wireless start up!!!

To: Stitch who wrote (10632)	8/15/2000 3:47:35 AM
From: Tom Simpson	Respond to of 11057

Stitch, And we should also note that the MR baby was no easy birth either. It was quite late in coming and RDRT in particular poured a bundle down the rathole before this rat popped out. As you note, there remain other factors which differentiate one org from another, and MXTR can surely claim a rightful place among the more astute and disciplined during these brutal times. QNTM has done pretty well too, all things considered. <<But Seagate's move has significantly spoiled the play don't you think? >> Here I defer to you. I find it impossible to properly decipher their real operating condition; the more vertical the harder it is in any case. And with all that cash available and sloshing around from securities transactions, they have accounting options no one else does. The only thing I have noted is that until very recently they have generally trailed in density, led in gross margins, and proportionately trailed in writing off excess PPE. What they will be like as a private company, IF the deal goes thru, depends a lot on what their post-deal balance sheet looks like relative to their actual manufacturing assets. In this kind of incestuous deal they can shape that behind the scenes pretty much any way they want. Who is going to notice two or three hundred million here or there in an 18 billion deal (maybe a bit less now :o) ) <<Any thoughts on HMTT/KMAG?>> No good ones. Combined they have lots of share in the independent market but thats of little value in a shrinking market. Until we start seeing actual unit growth in platters shipped I just don't see how they get to first base. On the positive side, WDC, QNTM, MXTR, etc have a certain self-interest in keeping them going. Its not quite like heads where TDK and/or ALPS might well step in for RDRT. Fundamentally I'm just waiting for the point where single platter drives dominate in desktop, probably at 15-20gb per platter capacity point, probably towards end of calender 2000. That will provide some shelter from density growth and let some drive unit growth flow back to components. Anyone still standing then might then hope to get better. But the multi-platter enterprise component market still has a lot of potential shrink left in it, so getting better doesn't necessarily mean a lot better in my view. Best.......Tom