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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: aburner who wrote (4993)	8/14/2000 4:13:16 PM
From: andreas_wonisch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Aburner, wow, great work! Looks like we will have a terrific 4th quarter. Some thoughts/additions from me: - Maybe you could include the earnings from the comm division sale in your calculation? It's a one time gain but there was a (minor) one time gain in Q1 as well (included in the Q1 1.15 EPS). - The ASPs in Q2 could be higher if we assume a 1:1 mix of 7th generation chips and K6s if the ASPs for Athlons/Thunderbirds stay in the $200 region and Duron shipments stay relatively low. Of course this wouldn't conform with AMDs guidance (>$100 in Q4). - The chipset revenues in Q4 should be higher due to 760 sales. If we assume up to 500,000 units (Joe even suggested some million units but I think this is unlikely) this would be approx. 20 million more revenues (asuming ASPs of $40 for the chipsets). Andreas

To: aburner who wrote (4993)	8/14/2000 6:32:30 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

ABurner, thanks for the nicely detailed earnings estimate. I think you should assume that more of the Comm group revenues will remain. AMD only sold a little over half of it. Kash had a post a while back that mentioned the pro-forma sales of the Legerity Inc, so the rest of Q2's Comm Division sales will still contribute and continue to grow. Kash's post Message 14198205 mentions $300M annual sales for Legerity. My guess is that's a Y2000 estimate which probably leaves $50M (Q3) and $55M (Q4)for the remainder of Comm. Petz

To: aburner who wrote (4993)	8/24/2000 12:14:35 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

aburner: Don't know if I thanked you for your very comprehensive analysis and projections...Definately a keeper!!! The sole source of potentially significant differences in our estimates are (as was previously mentioned) AMD is likely to include a capital gain in Q3 wrt the sale of the Comm division of about $0.50 eps which would raise your Q3 estimate to a split adjusted $1.25 and ASP's for Q3 and Q4 are both likely increasing at rate higher than AMD's guidance of $1.00 for Q4 owing to the probable change in mix from Q2 of 75% K6's at $50 to 20% K6's in Q4 at $40 or conversely from 25% $200 Athys in Q2 to 80% $170 Athys in Q4...If Athy ASP remains above $150 which is not improbable, Q4 ASP rises to about $125 which increases your Q4 estimated revenues for computer products group to about $1.25 billion and earnings to $1.50 or more...Thanks again for your post...It provides a fabulous frame of reference going forward!