To: dalroi who wrote (208 ) 9/7/2000 2:16:26 PM From: RCMac Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1833 Some thoughts about valuation of KDUS, in light of the reversal of the SIBI v. KDUS patent infringement judgment. First, the reversal will have the effect of moving almost $20 million in "restricted cash" on KDUS's balance sheet to ordinary "cash" on the balance sheet. (KDUS has about 13.1 million shares outstanding, and about $5.3 million in ordinary cash.) (BTW, the restricted cash is in KDUS’s hands, not SIBI/MRK’s. It’s in an escrow account, subject to some sort of agreement and probably a trial court order to hold it apart to pay the now-vacated judgment. I haven’t seen the wording of the agreement/order, but surely the restraint will dissolve at some near point, if it didn’t dissolve yesterday. Once the judgment reversal is final, KDUS won't have to wait for SIBI/MRK to decide whether it's going to muck about with KDUS before it writes a check.) KDUS will then have: (a) almost $2.00/share in cash, (b) the IP and other assets it didn't sell to OSIP (including a good-sized equity interest in Axiom), and (c) future royalties on existing and future (non-exclusive) licenses of its yeast drug discovery technology. The recent 10-Q described what was left after the operating assets were sold to OSIP: “The Company retained ownership of all its other assets including its core yeast technology for developing drug discovery assays, its collection of over 25,000 proprietary yeast strains, human and mammalian cell lines, and genetic engineering tools, its joint ownership of the human orphan G protein-coupled receptors identified pursuant to its collaboration with Genome Therapeutics Corporation, its proprietary software, its genomics databases related to G protein-coupled receptors, all assays and technologies reverting to it from its collaboration with Bristol Myers Squibb Company, an equity position in Axiom Biotechnologies, Inc., the Company's cash and cash equivalents, and the funds that were being held in escrow pending appeal of the verdict in favor of SIBIA.” Rick has made a couple of attempts in this thread to value the royalty stream, and I’m not competent to try to improve them. One important wild card in this pile of retained assets is the value of KDUS’s X% interest in Axiom. Stefaan Bafort recently tried, at post #208 on this thread, to estimate the value of the Axiom shares, and reached a value of $2.50+ per KDUS share. That was a very resourceful attempt at valuation, but there are too many variables for a really reliable estimate -- we just don't know enough, and the companies have rebuffed efforts to tell us, in particular the KDUS percentage interest in Axiom. But even if Stefaan's estimate is 2 1/2 times too large, the KDUS stake in Axiom is worth $1.00/KDUS share. (a) $2.00/share of cash, + (b) $1/share and more of Axiom, + (c) future royalties -- this does seem likely to add up to more than the current trading price, even with today’s spike. And all this is just a value-player’s view, without even thinking about what the company might do to leverage its assets in some creative deal(s) if it bestirred itself and took some coaching from Rick. --RCM