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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (70954)	8/15/2000 5:28:53 PM
From: Winkman777	Respond to of 95453

Actual crude build only 3.8 (API quess was 3 to 3.5) More API.......And revisions to crude by: supplyside_econ 8/15/00 5:19 pm Msg: 15411 of 15412 Crude excluding PADD 5 up 5.2 milln PADD 1 heat stocks +1.7mil PADD 1 gas stocks - .377 Implied gas demand 9.15 vs 8.75 Implied Heat demand 3.73 vs 3.82 Crude stocks 286.401 vs 319.163 LY Gas stocks 202.508 vs 207.013 LY Heat stocks 113.229 vs 138.738 LY Crdue imports 9.204 vs 9.357 LW Product imports 2.126 vs 2.336 AGA guess from Brige for WED a draw of 50 to 65 BCF Revision to Crude stockpile: Last Week Crude stocks were at 282.602, however this number was revised down to 278.997. Thus 282.602mil bbls - 278.997mil bbls = -3.605 downward revision. Hence: 286.401(new) - 278.997(old)= Build of 7.4 mil bbls In reality the build should be interpreted as: 286.401(new) - 282.602(old) = +3.79, which is close to guesses, but nonetheless a build Checking the math: 7.4mil bbl build - 3.605 = +3.79 build for the week ending Aug. 11. I will analyze more in a second. For example, there was a heat build, but it did little to shrink the year over year deficit. Supplyside

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (70954)	8/15/2000 5:30:33 PM
From: upanddown	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Jim API's really not that bad when considering a huge downward revision last week. Not reporting a big prior revision is very misleading. John Crude excluding PADD 5 up 5.2 milln PADD 1 heat stocks +1.7mil PADD 1 gas stocks - .377 Implied gas demand 9.15 vs 8.75 Implied Heat demand 3.73 vs 3.82 Crude stocks 286.401 vs 319.163 LY Gas stocks 202.508 vs 207.013 LY Heat stocks 113.229 vs 138.738 LY Crdue imports 9.204 vs 9.357 LW Product imports 2.126 vs 2.336 AGA guess from Brige for WED a draw of 50 to 65 BCF Revision to Crude stockpile: Last Week Crude stocks were at 282.602, however this number was revised down to 278.997. Thus 282.602mil bbls - 278.997mil bbls = -3.605 downward revision. Hence: 286.401(new) - 278.997(old)= Build of 7.4 mil bbls In reality the build should be interpreted as: 286.401(new) - 282.602(old) = +3.79, which is close to guesses, but nonetheless a build Checking the math: 7.4mil bbl build - 3.605 = +3.79 build for the week ending Aug. 11. I will analyze more in a second. For example, there was a heat build, but it did little to shrink the year over year deficit. Supplyside

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (70954)	8/15/2000 5:59:12 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Question is, how far down? 120 or 110? Catalysts? Well, there will probably be a string of good news relating to services companies - particularly drillers - over the next 2 qtrs. Catalysts could be of the good old fashioned variety - CONTRACTS. Especially if Big Dog is right about the capex being back loaded into the last 2 qtrs. As long as folks don't start up with the $20 oil jawboning I think this sector should be ok. Hey, I missed the last rally so I'm glad, on a personal basis, that some stocks may come down into my buy range. I'll have to agree/disagree a bit with you on outlook for the services sector. $32 crude probably gave the stocks more strength than they "should" have had - short term. Imo about 6 - 7 point on the OSX. 120 should provide some decent support. The disagree part is about needing even higher crude prices for the index to continue to go up. any kind of extended trading range between $28 - $32 crude is OSX heaven. I mean 7nth level, brother. Sustained high crude prices will be just fine, for this sector. So yeah, if you've got some good profits, why the hell not book 'em. There are a few stock's I'll be looking to buy, that I missed on the last run up.