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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (11341)	8/15/2000 11:57:06 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Haim, that is certainly true. in today's dollars the '81 price was actually $73/bbl., so we are very far from the price extremes of the past. what's more, Wall Street keeps telling everybody how oil doesn't matter anyway - heck, even Fed governor Poole said it. so why should OPEC demand less money for its oil? "please...pay us less....we don't want to take so much money from you nice people..." so i'm not saying current prices are not realistic - they certainly are. in fact, should a recession or a slowdown begin to curb demand again and force prices lower, the longer term implications for oil prices are quite negative (read prices will go much higher eventually), as once again capacity expansion will be put on the back burner. actally the long term facts regarding oil supplies are pretty clear: the major fields outside the mid-East are all past their production peaks. the Arab giant fields will reach their peak sometimes during the next decade. for every 4 barrels consumed, only one barrel in replacements is discovered. conclusion: at some point oil prices will explode. furthermore, by the middle of this century the oil based economy may well end. no-one has as of yet proposed a credible replacement for oil...one can only hope.