To: fedhead who wrote (86 ) 8/16/2000 2:29:22 PM From: pat mudge Respond to of 195 I just got a message saying there was some concern about SBC deployments. To counter the fears, here's the latest Wireline Weekly Report analysis: Source: CSFB Technology Group estimates We will be closely monitoring the progress these service providers are making on self-install deployments of full and sub rate (G.Lite) ADSL, as these solutions avoid the cost and delay of truck rolls, thereby speeding up the provisioning proc-ess. On this note, US West reported that over 90% of recent net additions have been self-installs. It is also important to highlight the recent SBC announcement that it has begun offering subscribers to its ADSL service in the Pacific Bell, Southwestern Bell, Nevada Bell and SNET regions the option to purchase a self-installation kit for $39.95 (which includes filters, software and a Network Interface Card). The kit will be available to customers in the former Ameritech region later this summer. This announcement follows the success the company has had since it first offered the self-install kit in Connecticut during Q1:00, where after the first month 30% of customers had taken the option and 95% of those were able to install the kit without technical assistance (i.e. without a truck roll). So far, ap-proximately 20% of SBC’s customers have been choosing the self-install option. The availability of self-installation kits benefit the consumer in terms of lower up-front cost (including installation, set-up and end-user equipment charges), signifi-cantly reducing subscriber wait times and avoiding the cost and delay of truck rolls, thereby speeding up the provisioning process. There were concerns in the stock market toward the end of this week about an inventory build-up of ADSL modems at SBC, causing significant weakness in the shares of the company’s largest CPE vendor, Efficient Networks (SBC accounted for 38% of Efficient’s total revenues in FQ4:00). In our view, these concerns are overdone given SBC’s success in accelerating installations and the significant pent-up demand for high-speed services in their region. It is true that SBC expe-rienced a slowdown in actual ADSL deployments (i.e. sell-through) in the latter half of Q2:00, primarily as a result of the transition the company is undergoing in converting order flow through to its CLEC subsidiary, Advanced Services Inc. (due to an FCC regulatory mandate). The company also mentioned vendor con-straints in July for DSL Central Office hardware (we believe this to be in reference to ADSL line cards sourced from Alcatel). SBC has stated that this transitory is-sue is mostly behind them, and the company looks forward to a return to robust deployments during the second half of the year. Our confidence level that this is Increased availability of ADSL self-install option should accelerate de-ployments. Recent concerns over ADSL CPE inventory build-up at SBC are overdone.