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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (27793)	8/16/2000 9:56:02 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Regarding the mania died, I couldn't disagree more. Semis are dead... you can't give them away... then some talking head says they are a buy and MU gains 15 points in a couple days, AMAT shoots straight up? How about T at 30 when no one wants it, then some rumor floats that the largest telecom in the US that Uncle Sam won't even let a coupe smaller ones merge is going to be bought out by a single person and it shoots up a point? UST shoots up 10% on a buy out rumor? The mania is still alive, it is just waiting for a chance to act stupid again. I am actually getting TA bullish on Tech again. I have over bought signals all over my DOW stock charts and I am starting to get over solds on my techs. A rotation may be in the mix here. What I hate is that the VIX is already at 20.6 so any rally would really take it down to ridiculous levels. Too many bulls but the bears are having a hard time taking us down lower. The dollar is starting to leak a little but the PPT can stop that leak to keep it from ruining the Democratic convention. Have you noticed the Repos and coupon passes have been accelerating again. Clinton knows the ship is in trouble but he is screaming to Summers, "Damn the printing presses, full speed ahead". <ggg> Enjoy your trip, I'll wave as you fly over. <gg> Chris, welcome to the working stiffs class, Good Luck with your dream job. It helps to do something you enjoy. Just don't take all my money. <g> Good Luck, Laa

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (27793)	8/17/2000 6:53:54 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

Dennis, >>>> Fleckenstein is right: the mania died. <<<< As I have mentioned in the past, the MANIA has 3 major components - the INTERNETS, SEMI-CONDUCTORS, BIOTECHs. Granted there were other subsectors but these were the 3 which had the largest market cap. The mania in the INTERNETS is over, and there are strong signs for the same in the SEMI-CONDUCTORs. The BIOTECHs appeared to have formed a double-top with the MAR & JULY peaks. And lets not forget that once a mania is over that a bear market follows, we just dont know exactly when, which I believe has a 100% correlation. 100% correlation does not mean 100% probability - lets just say I wont ignore that issue.