To: Gregg Powers who wrote (15862 ) 8/17/2000 4:52:58 PM From: Maurice Winn Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 29987 siliconinvestor.com Gregg, Globalstar has already gone asymptotic! It seems to be rounding out to $5 as the asymptote. I'm playing policeman today! Note also that it's Vodafone, not Vodaphone. A very popular mistake. vodafone.com Bids in the German 3G spectrum auction rounded out to $45 billion. Which should demonstrate to Serge Raes, Director of Business Development at the 3G3P, that he is whacked-out mad to say, <“The business case for 3G is not too good, and some companies may doubt they can get a decent return on their investment. If royalties are high, they may even review their decision to enter the 3G market,” > This proves: 1.....Once again, that as in the UK spectrum auctions, there are quite a few companies which disagree with Serge Raes. They obviously think there is a business case for 3G and that it is a hugely good opportunity. 2.....That QUALCOMM has grossly undercharged for their intellectual property. If they had charged more, there would have been less left on the table for companies to compete away in an attempt to get spectrum. Sure, NZ spectrum auction, currently puttering along towards NZ$20 million, yes, million, not billion, means that the spectrum here and therefore the spectrum-saving technology of QUALCOMM is not so valuable. But most of the world is much more crowded and will need to maximize their spectrum efficiency, which is what QUALCOMM can do for them [apart from actually make WWeb access work acceptably]. 3.....That these companies have something in mind and the UK auction was not an aberration. These companies think they have got a business plan and they know what technology they are going to use and they know when they are going to use it. They are not going to use GPRS, or EDGE, or VW40. They are going to use something based on CDMA and they are going to use it within a year or two. If VW40 as propounded is the plan, they are going to have to come up with it pretty soon. 2004 won't do it. Before then, some smart alecks will have introduced 1xRTT CDMA, HDR or MC-CDMA [cdma2000] in some other spectrum. This will not be a cakewalk for anyone [except Q! royalty division]. 4.....The companies have got money up their sleeve to build out the networks to use the spectrum. You don't get that many companies, full of bean-counters, who can't figure out how much money they'll need for fairly well-established technology. The rollout will be soon and they have already got the money figured out. Then again, maybe the auction is super-badly organized, like the USA C-Block auction, and a shambles of strategic bankruptcies or forfeited spectrum will ensue. Maybe they have bid up spectrum to drain competitors while planning to bail out and use other spectrum? That is total conjecture and I have no basis for it other than governments do really, really stupid things [as shown in the USA C-Block auction where they didn't get the money BEFORE the bidding started and where they favoured women, 'little' companies and people with approved DNA - which they don't even have an ASTM test for to ensure the people have got the claimed DNA]. 5.....Globalstar has got a worldwide crown jewel. Spectrum rights EVERYWHERE. Not just Germany or the UK. EVERYWHERE!! Globalstar can zoom WWeb phragmented photons to anywhere from anywhere. The constellation exists now. The phones work [the QUALCOMM model anyway - the Ericy phone has absolutely pathetic battery life, not that the Q! model is any great shakes]. Lots of gateways are operating. The technological development and expansion pathway, going forward, or backward, is unlimited. Well, the sky's the limit. By 2010, Globalstar can sprinkle the planet with WWeb pixie dust and will be making a fortune. All oceans will be covered. Poles. Aircraft. And, maybe if that TimeDomain crowd gets going and monocycle pulses can be developed and integrated into QUALCOMM's Globalstar systems, submarines. Which would be nice to have right now. Turn on your sound and click timedomain.com I have no idea whether that is possible! One other thing Gregg, if you'd bought Globalstar in 1995 at $3, split-adjusted, you'd have a pretty decent capital gain already, even at these depressed prices. That is another measure of how successful Berine Schwartz and the crew have been. They have been hugely successful. Okay, the big gains will probably come with commercialization and you haven't groaned under the load of Zenit, but imagine if Zenit had succeeded! Globalstar would NOT be $8 today. It was a close call! No short squeeze today...oh well... Mqurice