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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (30142)	8/19/2000 1:33:07 PM
From: Tom Chwojko-Frank	Respond to of 54805

I see what you mean about "intellectual". I kinda meant my admonishment tongue in cheek. Poor wording on my part. Anyway, back to gorillas. What I've understood from the manual is that we shouldn't get overly concerned with predicting future (more than 6 months out as you stated) growth. Use the existing proven growth as a metric. If relative growth changes between gorillas, we can rebalance our portfolios taking into account risks associated with the growth. As to QCOM specifically, I believe their real growth will come when the wireless data tornado is well underway. I believe the tornado is just getting going. For metrics, look at the growth of wireless short messaging services. That kind of communication is in hypergrowth, and the hunger for data will force the short messages to become more interactive and richly featured. In a post quite a while ago (was it Mike Buckley?) essentially said that the value chain for QCOM was already mostly in place, so that QCOM's initial growth will be that much faster. Maybe the downside of that is that the initial hypergrowth may be delayed while the existing value chain hangs on a bit longer. I think that the investment balancing among gorillas are more dependent on risk tolerance and knowledge of the individual companies than on finding an exact valuation on them. According to some interpretations of the gorilla game we should never sell gorillas until the threat to them is proven. I don't buy into that statement completely, and I think I agree with where you're going with that statement. Selling one gorilla to invest in another that you think has better growth seems an eminently reasonable practice. Tom CF

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (30142)	8/19/2000 2:24:09 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Gorillas may become average companies at a slower speed than ordinary above average companies Nothing is cast in stone as to what has to happen with a Gorilla over time. We know that the gorilla phenomenon increases and extends the CAP of the product which creates the Gorilla, but that is only that product. Undoubtedly, some gorillas will get lazy and become average over time, but others will use their position to create and develop new tornados. There is no rule as to how long that can go on.