To: macavity who wrote (4166 ) 8/21/2000 7:48:31 PM From: Matthew L. Jones Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 19219 As I said, "From a purely "theoretical" understanding of the basis of the formulation of the VIX.X, you are correct-- the implied volatility of the near-term ATM puts and calls of the OEX stocks would indicate low volatility of a large basket (S&P 100 stocks) or very little commitment to a single direction (either up or down) based on major hedging of long or short positions." What I meant by that is the following: 1) Implied volatility is the volatility derived by solving for volatility knowing all of the other variables using the Black-Scholls model (price of underlying, price of option, strike price, current interest rate and number of days to expiration). There is a link on my website which allows anyone to calculate it using the calculator provided by the CBOE. 2) Under normal circumstances, the average implied volatilities of the basket of OEX (S&P 100) front month ATM (at the money) calls and puts is in the mid twenties. I am aware that certain individual stocks have implied volatilies in the teens routinely, but my point was that the norm for the basket is in the mid twenties. 3) The point I was making regarding hedging was that most option purchases (long calls and puts) are made by commercials and locals offsetting risk in the equity markets in which they make markets. If they are net long equities, they will be net "synthetic short" or long put options in that market, and if they are net short equities they will be net "synthetic long" or long call options. 4) It is supply and demand that ultimately drives the prices in the option markets, so implied volatility is a dependent variable, linked to option prices. The more demand for options (calls and puts), the higher their prices, and thus the higher the implied volatilities. 5) At market tops, there is very little fear and thus very little hedging. At market bottoms, there is an abundance of fear and thus much hedging. When everyone has hedged all their risk, the bottom is in. And when everyone is convinced that the market will continue to rally, they have all already made their bets and there are no more buyers left-- the result is a market top. That is the point I was trying to make regarding the use of the VIX.X as a contrary indicator of the broad market. It is certainly not without its shortcomings, however, there are many LARGE players who wouldn't be without it. I personally believe that it is a strong indication that we are at a short term top in this market. The fact that most people are convinced that we go up from here is (to me) just a confirmation of that top. I would even suspect that the catalyst is the FOMC announcement regarding interest rates. Either we sell the news (market already discounted the "no change") or Alan Greenspan surprises the market with either a down move in interest rates or hawkish rhetoric and we sell the surprise. Either way, I see it down from here for a while. Our big rally begins in October, IMHO. Matt