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Technology Stocks : Teradyne -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sans Souci who wrote (1069)	8/23/2000 5:37:53 PM
From: Maverick	Respond to of 1184

ML:bck-end orders were up 2% seq, reversing the 10% decline Semiconductor Capital Equipment - Analysis of Monthly Book to Bill Results (Brett Hodess 415-676-3518) 8/23/00 • The semiconductor capital equipment book-to-bill for the US preliminary results came out at 1.23 down slightly from a revised 1.27 in June. The ratio declined more from acceleration in shipments than from slowing orders. Further, June’s results showed a notable upward revision in front-end numbers. Overall orders grew 2% sequentially and 91% year over year, an acceleration over the last 2 months. Shipment growth was steady at 5% sequentially and 73% year over year. • Front-end Apploed Materials (AMAT, $82; C-2-1-9), KLA Tencor (KLAC, $56; C-2-1-9) , Lam Research (LRCX, $28; D-2-1-9) Novellus (NVLS, $57; D-1-1-9) orders were strongest up 3% month to month for a decrease in book-to-bill from 1.32 to 1.29. Front-end orders year-over-year growth rates also increased from 88% in June to 103% in July. Back-end Teradyne (TER, $64; D-1-1-9) Kulicke & Sofia (KLIC, $18; D-1-2-9), Credence Systems (CMOS, Rvw) orders were up 2% sequentially, reversing the 10% decline seen in June. Book-to-bill decreased from 1.10 to 1.08 on strong shipments. • June Front-end bookings and shipments were both revised upwards by 2.74% and 2.14% respectively. Since July represents the third month of Applied Materials fiscal third quarter, we suspect that July’s numbers will see upward revisions. A slowing in overall order rates has been well expected, as month-to-month and y-o-y comparisons have become much more difficult. Investors should be aware that the absolute trend of orders is a much stronger indicator of stock direction than changes in growth rates. The stocks have taken a significant correction with the average P/E dropping to l6x 2001 from the peak of 30x at the end of the first quarter. We believe this presents a buying opportunity as the outlook is for continued order growth in the second half and beyond.