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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (83262)	8/23/2000 10:40:38 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie, it is largely an issue of confidence. at the moment, confidence is extremely high. nothing seems able to disturb the nirvana we have ostensibly attained - a perfect example for this is the big yawn with which the explosion in energy prices and the current account deficit are greeted. imo it will be very difficult to time the end game, due to the fact that financial markets remain well supplied with liquidity and it is impossible to tell what could possibly end up triggering a reversal of fortunes. but i definitely refuse to become part of the 'we have reached a permanently high plateau' chorus that is growing progressively more vocal lately. i continue to believe that the longer the boom lasts, the more painful the eventual resolution will be. already the bubble is gearing up for the next leg of expansion, with generous helpings of 'coup-de-whiskeys' from the Fed...clearly the speculation that has characterized recent years is about to resume. not really a surprise, as bubbles rarely stand still...they either expand further, or implode. the calendar cycle researcher Chris Carolan has December 2001 pegged as the end of the stock bull market...imagine, if he turns out to be right, what that would mean in terms of accumulated imbalances...it boggles the mind. regards, hb