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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kumar who wrote (30452)	8/25/2000 12:23:31 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

kumar, << QCOM IS a Gorilla of CDMA (ie. not "was") >> I agree. Despite the fact that the CDMA tornado has subsided (at least by the metric of subscriber growth that we have been using here) CDMA has not been displaced by a competitive technology and in fact it continues to grow market share. The Volpe, Brown, Wheelan forecast presented by CDG in April that shows a CDMA subscriber CAGR of 60% is reasonable (IMO) and respectable if not of tornado proportions. So we have an early Main Street for this gorilla unless the June CDG forecast of 100+ million subscribers by year end is attained (which barring a bloody miracle is unlikely). Nothing wrong with Main Street. Now that critical mass has been attained subscriber growth may become less of an important metric than handset sales, where churn, and replacement sales, add to new net adds, to click the old Qualcomm meter. click, Click, CLick, CLIck, CLICk, CLICK. << I would also hesitate to extend that Gorilla status to QCOM, in the context of the entire wireless industry, at this point in time. >> Probably shrewd logic. << for the purpose of this discussion ... I'd like to think "5-10 years out" >> Then QCOM is right up your alley, because it appears that the next cdma tornado might just be 5+ years out. <g> ... but in the meantime the meter goes click, Click, CLick, CLIck, CLICk, CLICK. - Eric -