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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (8619)	8/26/2000 1:52:04 PM
From: Mark Madden	Respond to of 9256

Here is a weekend report on disk drive pricing from a sample of retail distributor drives. The drives include 362 samples from 6 different distributors. The average sample of desktop disk drive prices remained stable last week. Weekly average price change (weekly rate): Weighted desktop --- down 0.5% Less than 11gb --- down 0.0% 11gb to 21gb --- down 0.5% Greater than 21gb --- down 0.3% Enterprise --- down 0.3% Current Monthly price change (monthly rate): Weighted desktop --- down 2.6% Less than 11gb --- down 0.2% 11gb to 21gb --- down 2.2% Greater than 21gb --- down 3.5% Enterprise --- down 5.5% Current Quarter price change (monthly rate): Weighted desktop --- down 2.5% Less than 11gb --- down 1.4% 11gb to 21gb --- down 2.5% Greater than 21gb --- down 2.5% Enterprise --- down 2.6% 2nd Calendar Quarter price change (monthly rate): Weighted desktop --- down 3.0% Less than 11gb --- down 3.7% 11gb to 21gb --- down 2.8% Greater than 21gb --- down 2.6% Enterprise --- down 1.7% 1st Calendar Quarter price change (monthly rate): Weighted desktop --- down 1.5% Less than 11gb --- down 1.1% 11gb to 21gb --- down 1.3% Greater than 21gb --- down 2.2% Enterprise --- up 0.1% With 5 weeks remaining in the quarter the price stability of samples is better than last quarter but not as good as the first calendar quarter. Normally this is a period when demand begins to seasonally increases. The seasonal increase may be related to inventory buildups for Christmas or school demands. Better inventory control delay Christmas inventory buildups but component shortage threats could do the opposite. Regards, Mark

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (8619)	8/26/2000 8:29:05 PM
From: Tom Simpson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

<<but, I am still concerned with the debt load, potential dilution as well as the fact that they probably need something close to $200 MM quarterly to turn a profit. Are these numbers feasible with the slew of qualification announcements this week (and do you have a better estimate of a breakeven point)?>> Right concerns, right questions.....they successfully traded one big chunk of questionable debt for less new convertible debt which is now well into the money. In addition, RDRT can elect to pay interest in stock....more dilution. Its not just a question of getting to the necessary revenue level.....its also a question of where the cash comes from to finance the increases in working capital. Perhaps we will see a secondary stock offering here soon :o) <<the fact that other DD's have also participated in this advance indicates a secular change in the sector's fortunes?>> You must be looking at different data than I....certainly not quantum or seg or hmtt/kmag mxtr, invx and wdc could be argued, and we are left with the mystery of htch which doesn't even have any pr to explain it. (Mind you I would love to see these dogs turn, I just cannot yet find substance indicating it.) I shouldn't mind the tabled 3/8's....its just the cost of discipline. :o) Nice trading........Tom