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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (71745)	8/27/2000 7:18:42 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Tic Toc... Come yee Blind Bulls - be Saved (VBG)~ "The Perfect Financial Storm" - this is a MUST read folks - seriously. financialsense.com Bullsky - great take on Money Supply - a must read section & graph. PS - I loved this quote: The leverage that once multiplied income will now devastate principal.” Martin Mayer, 1999 From my personal perspective on the subprime lending crisis that is about to unfold - this particulary hit home as it agree's 100% with what I see as being a huge problem that will implode this new paradigm bubble: The consumer debt crisis & soon to be default explosion will be a historic event and it will rock the markets because it will rock the Financials which are the foundation of the markets. <<Today, economic seismographs are picking up tremors in our financial system which are forming in the nation's credit markets. The coming earthquake they are sensing, and one of the distinguishing features of the American economy's recent performance in the 1990’s, is the meteoric rise in indebtedness. A greater portion of our GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is being powered by consumption. Capital formation and savings are no longer mobilizing economic growth. Outside the tech sector, there is little capital investment. Personal consumption and debt is driving the economy, rather than savings and investment. The result is that over the last decade, debt in this country has mushroomed from $4.1 trillion to $12.8 trillion. <<

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (71745)	8/27/2000 10:18:36 AM
From: pbd007	Respond to of 95453

Slider, I have lurked here for quite awhile. Didn't intend to join, but I just anted up so that I could say, "you may sometimes be wrong, but you're never in doubt". An admirable quality. Good Morning.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (71745)	8/27/2000 10:36:49 AM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Had to read your posts after the glowing recommendations. Very well written! Has anyone noticed the analysts pushing the financials on CNBC? Laughable! Wouldn't touch any of them with a ten foot pole! It is obvious that they are trying to get their top clients out. As was discussed earlier this summer consumer credit card debt is at an all time high. Here's another one. I defy anyone to find someone between 20 and 30 with a decent job who is not driving a late model vehicle! Most cars in high school parking lots are (much) newer than mine. Only difference is that mine are paid for. Houses are the same. Lots of young families around here in brand new $400K+ houses and new SUV's in the driveway. Lose your job for a few months and kiss that house goodbye. Expect lots of tearjerkers on the tv shows in the coming years: father: They took our house that we worked so hard for. interviewer: How much money did you have into it? mother (sobbing): We didn't put anything down but that isn't the point. It was OURS. interviewer: Well how many payments did you miss? father: Well we made the first two, but then winter came. It takes a lot to gas to heat 4,000 square feet and the gas company is obviously price gouging. We just couldn't make the next three house payments. Then I lost my job cashiering at Walmarts. child: Mommy, we won't have to go back to our old 3 bedroom house, will we? I need the indoor swimming pool. interviewer: There you have it. These poor down on their luck people kicked out of their homes by a price gouging gas company and ruthless and uncaring bank. Join us next time when we examine the ruthless dictatorships who caused all of this great countries problems on: "OPEC: The sinister conspirators"

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (71745)	8/27/2000 7:36:20 PM
From: James H	Respond to of 95453

Slider, I lurk here and try not to post too often, I consider most of the internet a massive waste of time and hate getting into the "mine is bigger than yours" debates. Having said that, I must compliment you on a well thought out and well written post. I have been pointing out some of the same signposts to a small circle of friends, with very little success. For the most part, people are more caught up in the latest episode of "Survivor" than current economic events. I have friends that are carrying debt levels that wouldn't allow me to sleep at night. Having an available balance left on a credit card now counts as as rainy day money. Again I want to thank you for the post, if the rest of SI were up to this standard, I would enjoy it more. Regards, JSH

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (71745)	8/28/2000 1:13:41 AM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 95453

I think you've been reading too many bear threads lately, Slider! Now you must know that Tice and company are some of the biggest perma-bears out there. You frequently caution this thread that the permabulls need to be careful and I strongly suggest that you are coming across as a permabear and I suggest that you too must be careful. I graduated & entered the workforce at the end of the Jimmy Carter - beginning of the Regan era - saw 19% Prime Rates, double digit mortgages, 20% Auto Loans and remmber $750+ Gold as well as a prior Energy crisis & recession... We are once again about to enter a vicious cycle and the writing is clearly on the wall imho. - we are now entering the final stage of a market & economic top blow off in my opinion. Lions and Tigers and Bears, oh my! Obviously all tree's don't grow straight to the sky & the US economy can not perpetually expand at this rate & productivity can not & will not either. Are you focusing on the latest productivity and GDP rates? Are you referring to the average over the past few years or the last 18 years? Please be more specific or it's impossible to give credence to your point of view. When that "last gasp" wage & benefit spike hits - it will soon lead to Corporate America having to react to higher energy & labor costs and also facing nearly impossible "comps" of this present market top. That will then soon lead to the cycle of cutbacks, cost controls, personnel reductions,etc. I have to completely disagree with this statement and I don't care how many Teamsters you've talked with! The "Corporate America" of today is in a constant process of reviewing cost controls. The companies that "don't get it" are the ones that are having problems and will continue to have difficulty in the future. I can't believe you can just dismiss our productivity gains with a strokes of your mighty pen......I mean keyboard! Just 'cause gold is cheap right now and out of favor doesn't mean the world as we know it is going to come to an end. But since you seem to be suggesting that the "Big Kahuna" is right around the corner, maybe you can be more specific as to WHEN the situation you've outlined will come to pass. Are we looking at a month, a year, or just sometime in the future but you're not sure when? I'm just curious. Michael