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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: adcpres who wrote (28698)8/30/2000 8:29:31 AM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 42787
 
adcpres,

Thanks for your response, it clears up things. You felt some tension from my post since in the past I have receive many PM's/posts blaming me for a wrong call, so since you are fairly new to this thread I interpreted your note as a subtle way of giving blame.

As to how long one holds a trade, that really depends on the individual and the position of the portfolio. One should have a stop loss, and Im not one to preach since Im lousey with stop loss.

I stick to my position unless the technicals tell me Im in trouble, keeping in mind that my technical analysis may be different than others and my system is very mechanical. I just have a level of confidence that my TA will pull me out of some bad positions without total loss. Now will I lose some, of course I will.

On MON the market went higher than expected on a intraday basis, but sold off significantly by the close. So from a TA basis I took it as an overshoot rather than a clear breakout of the many various wedges. Yes, with that intraday overshoot I had thoughs of concern and possibly closing some of my positions, but the selloff at the end of the day was the first clue that my sell signal may work. Additionally, the SOX broke the wedge to the downside and that is the main reason I am still in. Now I want to see more confirmation/follow-thru to the downside - if not then I may consider closing/reducing some of my short-positions.

This is just a quick explanation of the TA process that I am using to determine whether or not I stay in on the short-side. So my decision to stay in or pull out is quite mechanical. Of course there is subjectivity in the interpretation of TA, thats whats makes ones analysis different/worse/better than others.

Of course there are plenty of other issues to consider when trying to decide how long one stays in, like is one margined, what percentage in market, condition of portfolio.

As for me personally, I probably will hold on longer than most. With our mutual fund trades, I was consistently being reminded by LEE that we were down for a period, and that he wanted to forward me spreadsheet that would keep me aware of the performance of a trade, I simply said no - I didnt want to know since if I knew I may want to pull out. I would not pull out until my TA told me to, I did not want emotions to take charge. Thats how confident and mechanical my TA and discipline to my TA is. To the point that many would call it stupid.