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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: porn_start878 who wrote (7090)	8/31/2000 8:51:14 AM
From: TechieGuy-alt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Your ASP for Duron and K6-x look too high. The top Duron (700) is available at retail for $95. There is no way that the ASP for durons would be ~$90. I would guess more like $65 (assuming equal quantities for each and ASP for 600/650/700 to be $45, $65, $85 respectively). K6-x ASP's look a tad high too. Last Q AMD said that ASP for K6's were under pressure (but not falling too much). I would say ~$45-$48. Athlon ASP looks ok. I have found that without knowing the ASP's that AMD is getting for each chip and the volume breakup, there is no way to know the ASP for AMD in any Q to any reasonable degree. IF everything is going ok (i.e. no nightmarish last mask fix issues ;) it is best to stick to AMD's guidance and hope for a mild surprise. Too many people are treating AMD stock like a lottery. A few huge wins one after the other and they will retire. The problem with huge surprises Q after Q is there there will be Q with a huge disappointment too. Then the street looses its confidence in the company. Look at the largest market cap companies out there. Most of them only surprise by a few %, but do it Q after Q after Q...... The get rich slow method is the only way to do it buddy! TG