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To: BigBull who wrote (72156)9/1/2000 1:14:49 PM
From: Think4Yourself  Respond to of 95453
 
Good post Bull. I think you missed a minor point that will makes these shortages even more pronounced this winter:

In any prior year a shortage of HO could be alleviated by persons/companies with dual fuel boilers switching to NG. Not so this year. NG stocks are also dangerously low.

That being said, I am glad to have a NG furnace here in Michigan. The NG is here (literally under my house) and not under OPEC's control.

And I agree with you about it being over. We will have a problem this winter. It is past the point of plausible denial, especially with the current/coming "much above average" temperatures in the midwest.



To: BigBull who wrote (72156)9/1/2000 1:15:54 PM
From: warren harris  Respond to of 95453
 
Does anyone have any information on these guys? I don't recollect having seen them mentioned on the thread before. GRKA is up 1 1/16 today (last I looked) on what I take to be a response to the below referenced news release. It may be one to add to the list, although its currently trading at or above its 52 wk high.

PR Newswire, Friday, September 01, 2000 at 11:12

ARLINGTON, Va., Sept. 1 /PRNewswire/ -- The following is being issued by Friedman, Billings,
Ramsey & Co. Inc., a member of the National Association of Securities Dealers, CRD number 25027:

Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co., Inc. today initiated coverage of GREKA Energy Corporation
(NASDAQ:GRKA) with a "Buy" rating and a 12-month price target of $24.60.

In a 25-page report, senior energy analyst Rehan Rashid identified GREKA as a rapidly expanding
company engaged in the operation of an asphalt refinery in California and in the acquisition,
exploration, and development of natural gas and oil properties.

"After spending more than two years restructuring the company, GREKA's new management team
has demonstrated that the turnaround of the company is complete and the focus is now on
accelerating growth," Rashid said. "We expect future per share earnings, cash flow and asset value
growth to be accomplished through increased capacity utilization at the company's asphalt refinery,
as well as execution of a balanced program of exploitation, development, exploration and strategic
acquisitions of oil and gas producing properties."

GREKA Energy Corporation conducts domestic exploitation, development and exploration and
production activities in California, Louisiana, Texas and New Mexico. The company also owns a 49%
working interest in 380,534 acres in China, which has significant Coal Bed Methane potential.

GREKA Energy closed last night at $11 7/8.

Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group, Inc. (NYSE:FBR) -- the parent of Friedman, Billings, Ramsey &
Co., Inc. -- is a holding company for three businesses: investment banking and institutional brokerage;
venture capital and other specialized asset management products; and its Internet holdings, fbr.com,
an online investment bank, and Offering Marketplace(SM) a technology for the electronic distribution
of new issue securities. In March, FBR was recognized by Nelson's Institutional Research Report, as
the 22nd largest research department in the country in terms of research written. Headquartered in
Northern Virginia, home to an array of leading global Internet companies, FBR provides capital and
financial expertise throughout a company's lifecycle. FBR has offices in Arlington and Reston, Va.;
Irvine, Ca.; Boston; Charlotte; Chicago; Portland, Seattle; London; and Vienna. For more information,
see fbr.com.

Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co., Inc. makes a market in the common shares of the subject
company. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE SECURITIES MENTIONED IN THIS REPORT IS
AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST. This report is based on data obtained from sources we believe to be
reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and does not purport to be complete. Because of
individual client objectives, this report should not be construed as advice designed to meet the
particular investment needs of any investor. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change.
This report is not to be construed as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities
herein mentioned. From time to time, this firm, its affiliated entities and/or their respective directors,
officers, employees or members of their immediate families may have a long or short position in the
securities mentioned in this report. These securities may be sold to or purchased from customers or
otherwise by this firm, its affiliated entities, and/or its directors, officers, employees or members of
their immediate families, as principal or agent.

SOURCE Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co.

-0- 09/01/2000

/CONTACT: Andrew Parmentier of Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co., 703-312-9629, or
aparmentier@fbr.com/



To: BigBull who wrote (72156)9/1/2000 1:17:23 PM
From: BigBull  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Dabum, Addendum.

HO stocks are some 30 million barrels below last years levels that required a tremendous amount on HO imports during the warmest winter on record. So if crude stocks build 20 million barrels, so what? We at some time need every drop. I think the futures market understands what that "some time" means. Still on the treadmill.



To: BigBull who wrote (72156)9/1/2000 1:24:03 PM
From: The Ox  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Certainly this is food for thought! Excellent questions and theories. I guess the first issue is demand vs reserves. We should be able to get through a tough winter even if we have to deplete reserves to "dangerous" levels. As long as production will be "available" to rebuild stocks next year, then we wouldn't have to face a true crisis but more of a crisis of perception. If increases in production can NOT keep up with rising demand accompanied by the need to replenish inventory before next winter, then we could be facing a new oil crisis.

If the latter occurs, we will be faced with another huge boom and bust cycle, IMO.

MH



To: BigBull who wrote (72156)9/1/2000 1:40:33 PM
From: Umunhum  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Great post Bull! If I remember correctly from Simmons speeches, Winter oil demand in the U.S. rises 4 million barrels per day. If OPEC has 2 mbpd of excess capacity (some people are questioning whether this is optimistic), coupled with the fact that inventory levels are at records lows, how can we possibly avoid an energy crisis this Winter?

It's playing out just like Colin Campbell called it in March:

Logic suggests a future something like this:

OPEC makes some conciliatory noises about raising quotas in response to US pressure, wishing to maintain the illusion that its members can meet demand at will.
Norway and Mexico continue to support OPEC within the framework of such conciliatory words, making a virtue of necessity.
The market takes the hint and marks down the price of oil in an action that feeds on itself as the new flavour of the month permeates the ranks of speculators, hedge funds and derivative specialists searching for a quick buck. Refiners hold back from filling their tanks. Prices collapse to the low $20's, even perhaps plummeting briefly into the 'teens. People relax in the belief that the wolf has headed back into the forests. The famous flat-earth economists again cheer that market forces reign supreme.
But then a few weeks later, people begin to notice that fewer tankers are arriving. Norway says that storms have had an impact; Venezuela speaks of floods; Mexico claims restructuring; Saddam says he needs a spare part ; King Fahd leads a delegation of puzzled Senators into the desert to show that all the wells are fully open.
The penny finally drops that there is no instant spare capacity in the sense of shut-in wells. The men at their screens start marking up prices.
A new upward momentum drives prices through the $40 barrier. When Air Force One makes a new panic tour to Norway, Mexico and the Middle East, it meets ashen faced oilmen saying that they have been working night and day to meet their quotas, but were unable to do so.
The world, including OPEC, gradually appreciates that it faces a losing battle in trying to offset the depletion of the large, old, low-cost fields.
oilcrisis.com



To: BigBull who wrote (72156)9/1/2000 2:59:31 PM
From: Archie Meeties  Respond to of 95453
 
A poster on another thread went to buy some heating oil in Austria last week, but couldn't, none was available.

Could gasoline be sacrificed for heating oil over the next 3 months?