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To: Night Writer who wrote (84603)	9/1/2000 8:11:55 PM
From: Elwood P. Dowd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

Money Flow by: jointventure_2000 (42/M/Harrisburg, Pa) 9/1/00 7:51 pm Msg: 180844 of 180845 Usually posted by Chefjack Money Flow Uptick vs. Downtick Trading by Dollar Volume 5 p.m. EDT Friday, September 1, 2000 MARKET Money Previous Up/Down Flow** Day Ratio (in millions) (in millions) DJIA * +46.8 +77.9 104/100 Blocks +221.5 -211.3 128/100 DJ Global-US * +222.4 +360.7 102/100 Blocks +340.6 -554.2 106/100 S&P 500 * +32.9 +345.4 100/100 Blocks +280.4 -399.5 106/100 Russell 2000 * +114.5 +41.5 106/100 Blocks +37.1 -151.1 105/100 Money Flow ISSUE GAINERS Close (in millions) Ratio Corning (N) 339.500 +76.2 144/100 AmHmPdts (N) 55.750 +74.7 412/100 NASDAQ100 (A) 102.500 +69.3 115/100 Compaq (N) 33.813 +68.2 325/100 IBM (N) 133.625 +66.0 138/100 TycoInt (N) 58.500 +59.2 229/100 Ariba (Nq) 166.250 +55.8 122/100 AT&T Wrls (N) 26.625 +54.2 568/100 LucentTch (N) 43.250 +50.2 138/100 Vodafon ADR (N) 44.313 +45.3 222/100 AXA Fnl (N) 50.500 +42.5 206/100 IntPaper (N) 31.813 +40.8 394/100 HewlettPk (N) 125.250 +39.4 154/100 SBC Comm (N) 42.938 +38.0 203/100 SPDR (A) 152.484 +37.1 126/100 Money Flow ISSUE DECLINERS Close (in millions) Ratio Yahoo (Nq) 113.938 -53.5 91/100 FordMotor (N) 25.000 -45.5 63/100 Vornado (N) 36.438 -45.3 7/100 AnheuserB (N) 77.500 -42.5 25/100 AppldMatl (Nq) 84.813 -41.7 84/100 MellonFnl (N) 44.063 -41.4 29/100 TX Instr (N) 67.063 -40.7 68/100 Intel (Nq) 73.938 -39.7 88/100 ChaseManh (N) 56.313 -38.8 64/100 BestFds (N) 69.875 -35.4 39/100 Broadcom A (Nq) 242.063 -35.1 90/100 HomeDpt (N) 48.563 -33.8 57/100 GenElec (N) 58.125 -33.5 69/100 AmTower A (N) 37.875 -31.9 30/100 WorldCom (Nq) 36.938 -31.9 80/100 Source: Dow Jones * - without block trades. ** - in millions Moneyflow figures are the dollar value of composite uptick trades minus the dollar value of downtick trades. The up/down ratio reflects the value of uptick trades relative to the value of downtick trades. Corrected Money Flow history for July and August is available from the Readers' Reference Service at (413)592-3600 or via E-mail to djstats@dowjones.com Ignore this User \| Report Abuse < Previous \| Next > [ First \| Last \| Msg List ] Msg #: Reply Post

To: Night Writer who wrote (84603)	9/2/2000 2:56:08 PM
From: Captain Jack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

NW -- you are correct,, traders are looking to exit on any slow down of the run. Almost time to bail LCOS. It was suggested a couple months ago at 47 and is now nearly 75 with probably only 15 more to go. Luck!

To: Night Writer who wrote (84603)	9/4/2000 8:05:39 PM
From: Salah Mohamed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

NW ... Fundamental Analysis Your technical analysis is very nice and informative, keep up the good work. I'll do my part here and perform a little fundamental analysis based on the previous quarters financial results and the company guidance going forward. To get a handle on EPS going forward, one needs to calculate the operating margins (OpM). From the previous 3 quarters results, the following data are generated: Notes: Rev. = Revenue (B), IBT = Income Before Taxes (M), NII = Net Investment Income (M), IIBT = Investment Income Before Taxes (taxe rate is 35% on investment income per the company), OpI = Operating Income (before taxes) Rev. IBT NII IIBT OpI OpM% Q4-99 10.5 435 50 78 357 3.41 Q1-00 9.5 478 44 68 410 4.31 Q2-00 10.1 569 25 39 530 5.23 The main purpose of the above exercise is to show that margins are improving consistently even under unfavorable conditions, examples are: hangover from Y2K, slow adoption of W2K, component shortages, and excess inventory of consumer PC's in Q2. Looking forward, the company said in several occasions that they will meet this year numbers. In the latest CC they projected 10.8B revenue and 29 cents EPS for Q3. In order to meet this year numbers, Q4 numbers would be 12.1B revenue and 41 cents EPS, resulting in 42.5B revenue (~10.5% YOY growth) and $1.07 (excluding investment income) for FY00. Using Q3 and Q4 projected numbers, one can calculate the OpI and OpM assuming 1.76B shares and 32% tax rate on operating income: Rev. OpI OpM% Q3-00 10.8 751 6.95 Q4-00 12.1 1061 8.77 Comparing Q4-00 vs Q4-99, OpM improvement YOY is about 5.4% which is consistent with their guidance during the analysts meeting in Jan., refer to post #77121 for more details. According to the same meeting, their objectives are: OpM = 10%-11%, revenue growth = 15%. One may reasonably assume that the OpM will gradually improve through FY01 and reach 10.5% by Q4-01 and stay around 10.5% during FY02, and revenue growth will improve from ~10.5% in FY00 to 13% in FY01 to 15% in FY02. IMO, all these numbers are reasonable and achievable. To project the numbers for the next two years, we need to figure the average OpM for FY01. I would assume 9.5% average OpM for FY01 would be conservative enough to allow for some minor glitches along the way. Now, let's look at some interesting projected numbers: Rev. Rev. OpM% Shares, B EPS EPS Growth% Growth% FY-00 42.5 10.5 6.5 1.76 1.07 - FY-01 48.0 13.0 9.5 1.80 1.72 61 FY-00 55.0 15.0 10.5 1.85 2.12 23 It appears that the consensus EPS estimate of $1.50 for FY01 is extremely conservative and will be revised upward as the company provides more guidance. My projected number of $1.72 for FY01 is mainly based on the gradual improvement they showed in the previous quarters, their guidance, and their objective of reaching industry OpM and revenue growth. IMO, based on the robust EPS growth number for FY01, the stock price will make significant gains over the next 12-18 months, I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock climb to $70 sometime during 2001.