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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (2827)	9/6/2000 10:15:23 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 197343

<font color=green>Spectrum Beauty Contest in China = Yaayyyy! <Spectrum is limited resource. China could have 200 million subs by 2005. CDMA is far superior than GSM. I think with the density of population in China, they put much higher value in capacity than we do here.> Let's hope that China runs a beauty contest for spectrum and uses coverage as the primary measure of beauty. Every inch of China should be covered with CDMA as a requirement of the spectrum awards. That would give China nationwide roaming on the latest and greatest technology and they could thumb their nose at the USA with their messy jumble of spectrum and technology. China could boast of their great planning for 21st century technology. All Chinese would be able to have access to WWeb and voice services from one handy, low-cost, Made in China, device which would work everywhere. The spectrum auctions are crazy!! They will take money away from the buildouts of infrastructure. China will no doubt do the sensible thing and get things going NOW on the only technology with a pathway to the future [cdma2000 1X stuff, HDR, 1xEV, MC-CDMA, IS-95B, C and even A]. Korea is doing a head fake on the W-CDMA gang, pretending that they are going to use that [which might also help them get royalties down from QUALCOMM - hahahaha!!] so that Nokia, Ericy and co all keep working flat out on VW40 while Korea really prepares for their real plan, which is to come roaring out of their cage with full-blown 3G cdma2000 while their competitors are still asleep. It's a similar game to that Nokia, Ericy and co have played to keep GSM alive as long as possible "Don't buy CDMA, look, you can go GSM and then we'll have VW40 for you when you are ready. Look, we have test sites all round the world. NTT and everyone is working on it flat out. Just wait a couple more years and we'll be ready. Just wait. Won't be long now. Hang on. We'll have it right to you...". Like any good con, there's enough truth to it to be tempting [even Q! is working on W-CDMA and could produce a chip]. China and Korea are in cahoots. They've done good cop bad cop on Q! until nobody knows whether they are going to do CDMA or not, while maybe making a fortune on the share price of Q! jumping up and down 10% on each announcement. They know now that they are NOT going to get royalty reductions, but might get increases! Eekk!! China is still getting the Senate to approve that favoured trade stuff. Pretty soon, it will all be on. Spectrum in China is far more valuable than anywhere else - they have a fair bit of economic value, an enormous growth rate, hugely crowded people which means spectrum at a premium. So China can really put the acid on Beauty Contestants to do a great job of putting CDMA in every nook and cranny. A foolish, unwise and economically-damaging spectrum auction would mean coverage would be limited to spectrum-intense areas where revenues could be gained with little infrastructure cost. Sure, the government would get $$100s of billions to spend, but they'd just blow it on tanks and fighter planes and soldiers to invade Taiwan and hassle the USA. Far better to leave that money for a world-beating WWeb and cellphone system which would give China the economic power to REALLY come up with some military strength! With a vast WWeb network, [without spectrum costs] all citizens would have cheap, high quality, high speed service, China's telecom companies could finance overseas takeovers and more development, taxes on China-produced handsets would be huge, royalty payments to Q! would be stupendous....ooopps, no, I shouldn't mention that here....um, China would rule the world! When the floodgates open, there is going to be a LOT of fun in the CDMA world. WWeb is revving up. VW40 had better hurry....1X stuff is ready to roll [rolling actually]. Mqurice PS: I am a total convert to dropping those absurd auctions! Sure, it would have been better if Q! could raise royalty rates, but due to prior agreements, it seems they won't be able to [much anyway - not to 100% where it should be]. Three Bucks Full... All JIMHO.. do your own due diligence. That's all guesswork. No libel intended. It is a guess on why companies and countries are doing what they are doing. If NTT really IS about to produce W-CDMA, then my guess is wrong. If Nokia didn't ever figure that this would help prolong GSM sales, then my guess is wrong. This is a very big shell game, or three card monty or something like that. There is a LOT of money at stake. There is a lot of smoke and mirrors, head faking and chain-yanking [on again off again on again off again on again CDMA in Unicom]