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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sditto who wrote (31178)	9/7/2000 7:30:13 PM
From: EJhonsa	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

I know these questions weren't directed towards me, but I can't help answering: - Where do you anticipate tornados forming (chips, handhelds, infrastructure, services, applications, etc.)? Tornadoes for all things 3G: handsets, base stations, baseband ASICs, power amplifiers, etc. Tornadoes also for wireless streaming video (see Message 14141897 for some of my thoughts on this), GPS software, Bluetooth chips, and GPS-based e-commerce services (I'm sure that I'm forgetting a few things). - What part of the whole product solution is currently missing? The chipsets and handsets aren't here yet, the imperfections haven't been completely worked out of the infrastructure equipment, advances need to be made in chipset processing power for more advanced data services, necessary IPR agreements still have to be worked out, some details in certain specifications have to be changed, harmonization efforts need to be completed, certain auctions have to be finished, trials have to be completed. and Bluetooth chip prices have to come down a little. It'd also help if major advances in batttery technology were made, but that's not completely necessary. - What needs to happen for the missing pieces to fall into place? Time, effort, and Moore's Law. All three seem to be obliging quite well. Plenty of rollouts should be underway by mid-2002, some earlier. - What companies are in the potential Gorilla basket? I don't know if you can call Qualcomm a gorilla for W-CDMA, since it doesn't control the standard. But it does have a gorilla-like financial position (it makes money as long as the tornado takes place, no way around it). ARM is a semi-gorilla of sorts with the CPU designs that go into most handset baseband processors. Technically, another company could come in and kick them out, but that's quite unlikely, given the familiarity developers have with the platform, and how little they care for anything else (Motorola being the exception). Infospace may become a gorilla for location-based commerce sources for certain parts of the world, thanks to the network effect it's created among merchants. Certicom's the gorilla of elliptic curve cryptography, which could become the de facto cryptographic standard for secure transactions given its ability to perform well in resource-constrained environments. There's plenty of potentially very powerful kings out there as well, such as PacketVideo, the leader in MPEG-2 encodes and decoders for wireless streaming video, and Cambridge Silicon Radio, which seems to have the cheapest, most integrated Bluetooth chipset out there. Then there's Symbian, which should be a gorilla-king hybrid of sorts. I don't think it'll reach Microsoftian status simply due to the fact that many handsets will eventually support multiple operating systems, and due to the developer base, user base, and mindshare that Palm has in the North American market, but given the backing it's got, and the fact that its 32-bit OS runs circles around the 16-bit Palm OS and the bloatware known as Windows CE, it should be in a very powerful position. - Why would the tornado result in a royalty market? Not knowing much about the intricacies of gorilla gaming, I'm probably not the best person to field this question. Here's a few other posts I've made on the subject of wireless data: Message 14144757 Message 14144757 Message 14146921 Message 14147419 Message 14147419 Message 14152595 Message 14159679 Message 14169654 Message 14169742 Message 14170919 Message 14172036 Message 14174314 Message 14181316 Message 14186938 Message 14191256 Message 14324701 Message 14324701 Eric

To: sditto who wrote (31178)	9/7/2000 8:19:34 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

>> Why would the tornado result in a royalty market? The primary element that distinguishes a Gorilla Game from a Royalty Game is the existence of a proprietary open standard, owned and controlled by the Gorilla, of course. uf

To: sditto who wrote (31178)	9/7/2000 10:31:21 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

sditto, I'll let Eric answer the other quetions you asked him, but I've gotta jump in quickly to address your last one. Why would the tornado result in a royalty market? When Eric and I mentioned that the tornado may result in a gorillaless market, that doesn't imply that it becomes a royalty game. Instead, it only implies that the game is made up only of chimps and monkeys. That's an issue that Moore writes about rather consistently as being a possible outcome. --Mike Buckley