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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (72621)	9/7/2000 8:02:20 PM
From: stsimon	Respond to of 95453

One of the things that makes the market fun is that it is never exactly the same. The situation in 1997 and today have superficial similarity, but that is all. If, God forbid, we should have a cold winter spot prices for NG and HO will potentially see levels that are beyond anyone's wildest dreams. The thing about short sales is that it is all in the timing. In this case you may be a tad early, in which case your pockets will need to be rather deep. I shorted AMZN 3 months too early and paid the price. You can be right about the eventual outcome and get killed in the interim. I fear you are about to make pain your friend.

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (72621)	9/7/2000 8:04:39 PM
From: edward miller	Respond to of 95453

Yes I lived through the 1997 crash and I feel strongly that any comparison between 1997 and 2000 looking forward is nonsense. You are a desperate short. The only way I see a crash is if Asia's recovery turns down on a dime AND the US does the same. When you consider the long odds of another unusually warm winter after three in a row (plus the fact that weather forecasters are already saying that a more normal winter should be expected) and the demand for SUVs and very large houses has run crazy the last few years, I think you have lost your sense of perspective. I hope you are not in too deep with your short positions. You won't be able to talk the market down.

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (72621)	9/7/2000 8:08:13 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Greenlaw comparisons with 97 are very misleading due to all the differences. 1) Crude never got this high. When crude comes down (and it will) it has plenty of places it can land where the majors are still swimming in profits and willing to spend on cap ex. 25 to 15 and marginal production goes away, 35 to 25 and they'll still spend like crazy. 2) In 97' OPEC had plenty of excess capacity. Where's the excess capacity now? How much cheating have we had now compared to '97? 3) NG market is very strong and is expected to stay strong (at least over $2.50) for sometime. Huge amount of power generation will be coming on line over the next 5-10 years. 4) In 97' we hadn't suffered from prolonged $12 oil first. Things had been bad before, but they hadn't predicted $5 crude just a year or two before the '97 boom. Oil production doesn't turn on a dime. We are just starting to turn production around after bringing worldwide production increases to a halt for over a year. 5) In '97 the majors spent like crazy (creating a boom/bust). This time they took a full year of $20+ oil. Only now are they beginning to spend more. Once again this limits new production and prolongs the OSX cycle. I don't think the majors are even close to maxing out on cap ex yet. There are other differences I'm sure, but these are the most obvious to me and it's enough imho to demonstrate why it's different this time. About the only thing that is the same is some of the stock prices in selective issues. We may be 10-15% overvalued here. Hard to say. That will be borne out in the next 1-2 months thru oil data, earnings and contract announcements. However I see few similiarities between now and '97. This will come to an end eventually, but you're very early. Have you seen or heard how some of the land drillers among others can ramp up earnings if rates hit replacement costs? PTEN for instance can make in one quarter what is being forecast for all of 2001. NSS isn't a land driller, but is in the same boat. We will reach a time when those type of estimates start hitting the street. After that time then I'll consider going short. Our biggest problem is that things are too good. How can we improve from here? But I've heard of worse problems. Pullback? Yes. Correction? Yes. The End?? No. Please stay short. P.S. NOTICE I DIDN'T RESORT TO ALL CAPS LIKE TO SOME TO TRY AND MAKE MY POINT. SEEMS TOO MUCH LIKE SHOUTING IF YOU ASK ME.

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (72621)	9/7/2000 8:10:29 PM
From: diana g	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Greetings, greenlaw You left out a major factor in the '98 plunge --- The Missing Barrels They weighed heavily on the market. --diana (Glad to have you posting. We need all the bearish opinion we can get here. Thanks for posting your reasoning.)

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (72621)	9/7/2000 8:13:14 PM
From: sportsman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

greenlaw, Were you posting on the Rig Yahoo board back in 1999? If memory serves me well, you were very negative on RIG when it was trading around $25. Have you always been negative on energy stocks? Shorting energy stocks now is a much better bet than in 1999, although I wouldn't attempt it. I could have you mixed up with another poster, but your nick sounds familiar from the Rig Yahoo board back when I used to follow it in 1999. Good luck, Sportsman

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (72621)	9/7/2000 8:41:00 PM
From: Aggie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

greenlaw4-7, good evening, You are certainly entitled to your perspective. In fall of '97 I was living the experience of the asian downturn in person and planning an exploration program at the same time in Jakarta. I can tell you that, although the OSX was strong in mid-97 the feeling in the patch front lines, on a daily basis, was anything but. We all knew what was coming, some knew why, and I was taking full advantage as an operator getting some great deals on rigs and services. Well before the crash. I can also tell you that things right now are not at all as they were then, either in Jakarta or where I am currently working. Everybody is flat out trying to scrape up people, and trying to line up new equipment, and in some cases, scrape up old. I'm acting accordingly. Regards and Good Luck. Aggie

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (72621)	9/7/2000 9:07:48 PM
From: Umunhum	Respond to of 95453

I have very painful memories of the oil crash in 1998. However without the crash, I would have never had the opportunity to load up on all the stocks that I did. Economically, I'm am a lot better off now that the crash did happen. JimL made some good points but if I recall correctly the main reason for the 1998 crash was Iraq suddenly put 2 mbpd on the open market. The other factors; the asian flu, missing barrels, and OPEC increase helped the crash along. This all according to Matt Simmons anyway. So what you need is a country to come out of nowhere and start producing 2 million barrels a day. I don't believe RIG ever traded at $15. I would have found a way to buy at least 10,000 shares. As Big Dog said when these stocks start to move they will move faster and higher than anybody thinks is possible. IMHO you should cover your shorts.