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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan B. who wrote (4804)	9/8/2000 10:11:39 AM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 5853

Well, I certianly lack the serious prose of Gilder and his followers. I'd swear that you were all novelists. <ggg> Still Gilder does not, in his articles, position his comments as something that will take place 10 or even 5 years from now. The articles are pretty direct in that he makes vision statements regarding what he believes is on the near term horizon. In effect he has taken advantage of his modest understanding of technology and is no selling it like a 1900's potion salesmen pulling into town. Unfortuantely the townspeople don't know any better so they buy his wares when in fact he doesn't really understand the issues and pressure points in the marketplace. Yeah, so once in a while he comes back to town. Some of the townspeople are upset because the last potion didn't work - perhaps it even made them sicker. So he admits his wrong doing and promises to do better. In fact, he has with him the very thing that ails you! Dan, Remember the last few years of this market. It's been real tough to make a bad call in technology. Any fool could have picked 20 stocks and 16 of them would have been winners. Gilder has taken advantage of the growth market and hype around technology stocks. He has taken advantage of those that don't understand the tech sector and the following has grown so large now that when Gilder makes a reccommendation it becomes a self fulfilling destiny. BUT, the tech sector isn't what it once was and you have to really know what you're talking about to navigate it well. Yes, optics is a no brainer.... but is it? Is JDSU 70 times trailing revenues? Is JNPR worth 2700 times trailing PE? Given their narrow product line how big IS there target market? I could go on and on but I'm going to save it for later. What irks me now is that Gilder has taken such a myopic view of communications as to suggest that routers will soon become hardware devices within STB's, modems, gateways, etc.. and this spells the ultimate demise of companies like CSCO... gee.. I guess give the optical backbone JNPR would go away as well. Again, I'll save the serious discussion for later but I can tell you that what Gilder professes is so far off the mark that all it does is serve to demonstrate his true lack of understaning in the tech market. That said, his followers keep buying his bull and he keeps coming up smelling like a rose - self fulfilling profecy. Sour grapes on my part - yes. I'll admit that. But, for the naive non-tech savvy investor buying this man's secret potion of the month.... what happens IF you get even more sick? OG