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To: High-Tech East who wrote (35109)	9/8/2000 1:50:10 AM
From: JC Jaros	Respond to of 64865

Re: Macro Polo --- We bombed Iraq. We'll bomb Opec too. This is an election year. --- Check out the EPS this quarter at your favorite oil company, though. These are the guys in the driver's seat. -JCJ

To: High-Tech East who wrote (35109)	9/8/2000 3:13:17 AM
From: QwikSand	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 64865

Ken: Everyone jokes around about it but I completely agree with you. I don't know if your December put is going to be good or not--may be too soon--but the chance of a serious oil shock is clearly very large. I think in 2001 or 2002 we're going to see major oil problems that make earnings announcements about as significant as wine tastings. In this deflationary world we live in, oil is the only thing that can set off runaway inflation. JDN and the rest of the soccer moms aren't going to be buying SUV's as their third and fourth cars for much longer. Oil stocks may be the place to be. --QS

To: High-Tech East who wrote (35109)	9/8/2000 5:33:27 AM
From: JDN	Respond to of 64865

Dear Ken: Look at the bright side, Scientists say we are into a GLOBAL WARMING TREND!! Polar ice is melting. Maybe winter will not be so bad, I know here in Florida, doesnt mean a thing!! (gg) The Economist in my opinion is into hollering fire in a movie theater. Relax, there aint gonna be a recession, NOT YET. Recessions are cause by restriction of the money supply and resulting higher interest rates. I believe rates have peaked and are poised to drop next year. JDN

To: High-Tech East who wrote (35109)	9/8/2000 4:21:35 PM
From: High-Tech East	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

The Commitment of Traders Report was just released for the last two weeks The "Commercials" are now more net-short (more "short" contract positions than "long" contract positions) than they have ever been. For the last two weeks (averaged together), they are short 52,639 contract positions (net). ... let's see ... 52,639 positions requiring $23,438.00 in margin requirements for each one ... that is ... $1,233,752,882.00 or $1.2 billion dollars that they have bet against the S&P 500 ... I am not going against them ... in fact, I am planning to join them (at least in part) by buying my second "put" on Monday. (Note: the dollar figures are my own personal calculations and to the best of my knowledge, they are correct) Ken Wilson