Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigBull who wrote (72713)	9/8/2000 1:20:22 PM
From: Warpfactor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

"Richardson said Congress should pass the administration's energy initiative programmes, like tax credits for domestic producers, as a way to stem price rises and supply shortages." Hello?!!! The Administration's energy initiative programs??? Tax Credits for domestic producers?? It must be those dastardly Republicans at work again. Bottling up legislative efforts to expand domestic drilling!! Warp

To: BigBull who wrote (72713)	9/8/2000 1:31:31 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

DOE charts: Aggregate stocks will probably reach their peak in the next two weeks: eia.doe.gov Finished gasoline products dropping to a new low?: eia.doe.gov Distillates? C'mon folks this is a disaster waiting to happen: eia.doe.gov Anybody notice how the bears myopically focus on OPEC and crude while completely ignoring distillates? Well of course they do because it serves their interest to do so. Now It will get real interesting to see what labor day did to gasoline stocks in the next report. The bears need to remember one VERY IMPORTANT FACT that they tend to dismiss out of hand. This latest crude rally is product driven. IMO products will return to bite their behinds with a vengeance!

To: BigBull who wrote (72713)	9/8/2000 1:45:44 PM
From: Greywolf	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

A view from Iran, Iranian oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said on Friday that oil producing countries within OPEC have acted responsibly to stabilize oil market by adding 2.5 million barrels per day to their total production within six months, thus preventing any lack of supply. He said that in the past two months, there has been a hike in crude supply in the market by some 1.5 to 2 million b/d. Noting that fundamental elements in the oil market do not justify oil price hike in the past month, he referred to psychological factors, speculation in the oil market and US presidential elections as important factors in this regard. The Iranian oil minister said the US imports now some 9 million barrelsof crude per day while it needs 10 to 10.5 million barrels, adding that it is not able to import more due to certain technical problems. he also noted that introduction of a new reformulated gasoline in the US market has increased their demand for sweet crude oil, while most of the OPEC production is of the sour type. On decision of OPEC ministers in their next week meeting, Zanganeh said OPEC members are not for high crude prices or creating artificial demand in the market and have repeatedly supported dialogue among the oil producers and consumers. Noting that world economic growth forcast was 4.5 percent for 2000 while the figure is 3.9 for next year, he said OPEC ministers should take into consideration this decline in world growth in order to avoid imbalanced supply of oil in the market. About Saudi Arabia's reported unilateral increase in supply by 600,000 barrels a day as of July 1, Zanganeh said this has not been confirmed by his Saudi counterpart and Saudi Arabia as a founding member of OPEC is not expected to act against the organization's decisions. On the current situation of the world oil market, Zanganeh said it is too complicated to allow a sound forcast, but what is a clear fact in the market is a dwindling excess capacity of crude production which stands now at less than 2 million barrels per day. He said non-OPEC oil producing countries are now doing their best to produce 49 million barrels per day and the OPEC production stands at 28.5 million b/d. The Iranian oil minister said drop of oil prices in an 18-month period led to insufficient income for OPEC members which prevented these countries from investing enough money for creating excess capacities. Zanganeh underlined that the US sanctions against Libya, Iran and Iraq have had a tremendous negative impact on oil supply in the world, disrupting the mid-term creation of excess capacity.

To: BigBull who wrote (72713)	9/8/2000 1:58:11 PM
From: Meridian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Theoretics of SPR threat - seems that the government would have to sell oil to US refiners at a discount in order to induce them to take shipments. If there were no discount, they would be indifferent as to whether they purchased Bonny Light from Nigeria or WTI for the SPR. If spot is $34.00/bbl they could sell $1000 worth of oil to a US refiner at a discount of $28.50/bbl. So the refiner would receive 35 barrels, instead of 29.5 barrels had the refiner paid the full price. The refiner would then reap huge margins during the 4th and 1st quarters, because gas and heating oil would likely remain high, but their feedstock costs would fall. In September 2001, the refiner would agree to replace 35 barrels + another 5.5 barrels in order to address the discounted oil he got the preceding year. Thus, the government could alleviate the short-term supply crunch this winter, AND it could increase the quantity of oil in the SPR next year. Does this sound reasonable? However, the caveat is this: refiners would have to believe that spot prices in Sept. 2001 will be lower than the $34.00/barrel they could get now. If spot prices were higher, they would lose $$$. Just thinking outside the envelope.