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To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (108147)	9/8/2000 10:36:02 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Glenn -- let me ask you to consider something... we have had an economic boom - nobody doubts that. But why? Don't underestimate the role of markets outside the US being pretty depressed -- and the cost of energy being dirt cheap. The US economy never hit the wall from too much growth because the rest of the world was flat on its butt. No more. The price of oil tracks the business cycle -- guess where we are in that cycle? I will give a clue -- check the price of oil. Stock markets anticipate - what are they saying? I will give you another clue -- check the tape today. We have been focused on interest rates -- the consensus has been "soft landing" as the economy slows and interest rates "only" had to be raised half a dozen times. Don't look now, but something much bigger than interest rates just tapped us all on the shoulder -- oil. Sell.