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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (108190)	9/10/2000 12:27:43 PM
From: Eric Wells	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Regarding anonymity. We're all anonymous here - until someone sues for being called an idiot. Sarmad - you are correct - we are all anonymous. But, believe it or not, "Eric Wells" is my real name - and I believe that Sarmad is your real name as well. And if someone here wants to find out more about me, they can read a little bit about me on my web site at www.softagon.com, or they can search the net for "Eric Wells". But even such information gleaned from the net won't necessarily lend any credibility to the words I may post on this board. I suppose what I have liked most about the AMZN thread in the year and a half I have participated here is that the "regular" posters generally refrain from making strong recommendations or encouraging others to take specific actions. You rarely see one poster write to another "you should buy XXXX stock now!" Rather, you generally see someone state an opinion or state what they are personally buying or selling - such as "I think AXXX is a deceitful, cash-burning poor excuse of a business the stock of which I wouldn't touch with a ten foot pole." (disclaimer to all lawyers that may be reading this post: the previous quote was not a statement of fact or expression of opinion, but rather a fictitious statement used for effect in expressing a point). Even in the numerous heated debates I've had with William, I can never recall him writing "Eric, you should abandon your bearish ways and buy CMGI and PCLN." And I can't recall writing to William "Sell all your AXXX before it makes you poor." (previous disclaimer applies) But last week, GST started posting messages containing statements that appeared to me as very strong recommendations and encouragements to "Sell!" He/She came off as though he/she was encouraging others to liquidate their portfolios. I viewed GST's posts as being rather, what shall I say, "strong"? Since we are all "anonymous" on this board, I purposely try to refrain from encouraging others to take certain actions regarding their investments. Were I to do so, I would like to think that I would have good data to support such encouraging. For example, were I, through some chance encounter, privileged to overhear Jxxx Bxxxx say something like "Oh my God - there is absolutely no way we are ever going to transform this loss-making enterprise into a profitable vehicle that will help us climb out of this morass of debt!" (disclaimer: I never heard anyone with the initials JB make such a statement - this fictitious quote is used purely for effect to make a point and should not be interpreted as either fact or opinion) - well, if I were to hear Mr. Bxxxx make such a statement, I might post a message on the AXXX board containing something like, "hey everyone, I heard Jxxx Bxxxx say such and such... and while each must make his/her own decision regarding the long term pay-off of having AXXX in one's portfolio, you might want to consider the potential impact of the statement I just heard Mr. Bxxxx make and whether or not you should adjust your portfolio accordingly." And upon reading such a post, the other participants on this thread would have to evaluate the validity of my claim and whether or not they could "trust" me and whether or not they should believe what I have written as being "true". As such, I might get follow-on posts with inquiries about my encounter with Mr. Bxxxx - inquiries such as "Where did you hear Mr. Bxxxx make such a statement?" - or "Who was he talking to at the time?" etc., etc., etc. This I would expect. So, when GST comes on this board and says "Sell" - a statement which I believe only can be interpreted as to mean "Sell Everything", I'm inclined to ask GST "Why?" - or "What information do you have to support such a position?" or "Why should I believe you - or more specifically, who are you and what are your credentials so that we may evaluate how much credibility we should place on your sounding the alarm?" GST may be right. Or, she/he may be wrong. But he/she has provided little support for her/his "alarmist" posts. I believe most on this board probably agree increasing oil prices will have a negative impact on the economy. But should one sell everything right now based on such concerns? Should I get on the phone to all my friends and family and encourage them to "Sell" based on what GST has written? I understand the basic economic equation of: higher oil prices = higher business costs = lower profits and higher prices. But this is a very basic equation. And should I use this equation to determine whether or not to hold investments in any stocks? And is there a high level of certainty that oil prices are going to go higher? In her/his posts, GST appears as though he/she would give a definitive "Yes" answer to both of these questions. And all I've asked her/him to do is to elaborate and provide some data to support his/her position. Thanks, -Eric