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To: Eric Wells who wrote (108192)	9/10/2000 2:33:50 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Hi Eric, First GST is a he, and his sincerity is totally credible with me. Though I would not go as far as to say he's infallible. I think he is just being dramatic. And I also think he was addressing his posts to me and so in context, I think he was referring to short term speculation funds. You know, some people like primary colors, and some like more muted contrast. Anyway, forget the strong sell recommendation. I hope people don't sell en-masse on Monday. Lets concentrate on something useful, like they do on the new econ thread. What companies will benefit if oil and its derivatives stay in short supply for a year or so ? Drillers ? that's obvious. Wood stoves ? Sweater makers ? maybe! How about in manufacturing ? In transportation ? I would rather the discussion go in that direction. I think there will an opportunity in this field similar to the fast money that was made on the Y2K hoax. Especially if the Fed starts to mention the oil price in their minutes. But let's not bring up the subject of risk, if you know what I mean. Cheers, Sarmad (yep, that's my real name)

To: Eric Wells who wrote (108192)	9/10/2000 7:49:00 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Eric: "And is there a high level of certainty that oil prices are going to go higher?" If you think this is what I am saying you clearly do not understand my posts. Energy prices at their current levels are the problem -- for most of this year the market has been expecting a drop in energy prices -- a drop that did not come. Now there is false hope that OPEC will act and energy prices will drop -- I have been making the case that this is not likely. I then make the case that energy prices have helped keep the bull alive for years -- and energy prices AT current levels or even a little lower are a very serious threat to the stock market as an investment class. Buy or sell as much of whatever you like, but goldilocks has contracted a serious illness. My message is not just "sell" although I think it would be prudent to be cautious right now -- my message is that oil has become a problem for the stock market -- don't underestimate how pervasive a problem it has become. Aside from interest rates and money supply, energy prices are absolutely fundamental in our economy -- and we all forget that at our own financial peril.