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To: chartseer who wrote (24227)9/10/2000 7:54:15 PM
From: Susan Saline  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53068
 
maybe we'll have a black monday!
maybe we'll have the biggest one day point gainer ever!

but what the heck do any of us know :o)

have a great week!!

but on the serious side .... I am looking for a tech rally after the 8% loss last week in NAZ



To: chartseer who wrote (24227)9/10/2000 9:57:47 PM
From: Ron McKinnon  Respond to of 53068
 
the market is always nothing but maybes
but sometimes it pays a tad better to have the maybe of the day slightly tilted in ones favor

with the exception of a very few sector funds 95% of the 1000's of mutual funds have done nothing all year and most stay 95% invested long at all times

95% of investors have their retirement funds in these funds; so 95% of all IRA's and 401k's are flat for the year

95% of traders play long and are usually fully invested and even on margin
how have 95% of them done for the year?

to me the equation is simplistic although very possibly wrong
we are in the uncertainty of an election
the market has not priced in the full impact of energy prices
we are at the beginning of this quarters earnings warning season
we are smack dab in an historically 6 week or so "difficult" period of the year

so why press ones bets untill the stars line up a bit more in ones favor?

you all have known me for a good 4 years now
although I get out of control many times the only way I and others have done reasonable well is because we don't take anything for granted and try like hell to take plays when the odds are perceived to be more on our side

in my position hold account where I hold stuff for hours, days, weeks, and sometimes months and where I am usually 20-40% cash, and only long, I am up 27% this year
I frankly am thrilled with that
it's the result of a lot of long hours but maybe more because I try to time the market so that I have a better than average chance of comeing out on top at a given point in time

before Jan of last year I never shorted a stock but finally gave into "peer" pressure and tried the "dark side" for my short term daytrade account
now, as you know this account is very small compared to my long account
and is 80% shorts at any given time
but it is up over 200% ytd
not as good as last year but this has been a damn difficult market to game

I know I come accross as a doomsayer often
but you know if you are not afraid of this market every single day it can bite you in the ass and knock you silly

I respect all of the differing views expressed here
and often have my view changed by those of you I count as trading soulmates
but until my personel methodlogy stops working I'll comtinue to preach while hopefully listening and keeping an open mind

just remember it is a peice of cake to make profits in the market
keeping them is the difficult part