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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (108233)	9/10/2000 10:30:03 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 164684

Sarmad: LOL -- the drop in tech stocks last spring was in response to valuations in the light of rising interest rates. Rising rates force investors to seek earnings rather than growth without any prospect of earnings in the near term -- that is what happened earlier this year -- did you miss it? Lots of tech stocks dropped by 70 to 90 percent. Did you not notice? The "rally" which took us back up has been in anticipation of the end of the tightening cycle -- betting on a low probability of a recession (a so-called soft landing). If a hard landing was expected, stock prices would be much lower. Stubbornly high energy prices are making a hard landing increasingly likely. See you later -- and by the way, I really do hope everything works well for you old friend.

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (108233)	9/10/2000 10:34:45 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Geez Sarmad -- I forgot to respond to you point about oil going from 10 to 30 bucks with no impact. Most people expected oil prices to drop last spring -- I did and sold my drillers. We are still waiting and now the prospects for lower prices are going down, not up (the prospects for lower prices are going down -- not the price). Like everything else, impacts in the whole economy tend to be lagged. Its time to pay the piper -- and once again -- good luck.