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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (8437)	9/12/2000 10:08:13 AM
From: justone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

Mike: RE: your ANTEC (ANTC) suggestion. The stock is dropping like rock: what is your feeling on the reason? It may be the kind of buy I like- a stock in a growing industry that is way oversold, except their revenue growth in a expanding industry is of concern. Their big strength seems to be an exclusive clause to market cable systems for NT- but DOSCIS, the standards, is designed to support multi-vendor relationships. Conclusion: A possible buy out play from NT, but they are not strong players in the future DOCSIS technology. NT may consider them legacy and possibly has an internal group trying to build their own equipment (this is typical of Nortel and other companies; I have no knowledge of this). They are not likely to make it alone in this industry, in the US or the world. The NT relationship inhibits a buyout by others, but it is not impossible that someone else might want them. Hey- if NT needs to get rid of the exclusivity, it may be cheapest, given the current price, to just buy them out? Some notes as I studied ANTEC. Research scope: I did a quick look at their web site (with a slow modem, so I didn't look all over). At first I was skeptical- but there may be hope in the ARRIS joint venture between NT and ANTEC. I also then quickly scanned the ANTC thread from March, 19, 2000 (last 80 posts). This counts as 'low' diligence. Early comments: I found no mention of DOCSIS, or DOCSIS 1.1 on a quick look at the web site. I went to www.cablelabs.com and they are not members- there are over 200 companies that are members, covering 80% of the US market, and probably affecting the remaining 20% stongly. Selling voice or data over cable without DOCSIS today is like selling a router without IP circa 1992. Indirectly (from the thread) I find they will use DOCSIS, but clearly they are not strong players in this area, and don't care much about DOCSIS- they didn't highlight it on their web site. Big providers/carriers (I have acquaintances in carrier test labs) only feel comfortable with big companies- and that means NT or LU in the US; Tellabls and ADC are barely large enough for them to look at. LU doesn't have anything in cable (they got out of it years ago), so NT is in good shape. If ANTC is a good investment, it is because someone will buy their technology (NT, obvious, or LU, ALCATEL, SIEMENS, and the like) who can install it. Mind you, the cable business has many small players, who might go with a small company. But not ATT, AOL/Time Warner, who cover over half the market. There is also a global market, but I didn't see any global offices. Arris is a joint venture of ANTEC with NT. They are not members of cablelabs. However, they have ATT as a customer, with NT, it seems. Arris may be the hidden gem- what is there % ownership? Thread comments: The thread contains a lot of pain, and deep distrust of management. This is not good, but this is fairly typical of a stock dropping as ANTEC has. The CEO is a genius when the stock is up, and an idiot when it is down. To make money today, you need voice/data over anything with TR303. To make money tomorrow, you need voice/data over DOCSIS 1.1 with TR303. Nortel would love TR303- they can sell the head end and a CO at the same time! To be bought out you need a strong VOIP strategy. I don't know if ANTEC or ARRIS has the last. They seem to mostly be a hardware company, with DOCSIS embedded software mandated by NT, perhaps, and thrive at the mercy of Nortel. Further information needed before purchase. P.S. I have not looked at your suggestion of CUBE yet, but I will get around to it as well.