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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (31451)	9/11/2000 4:48:54 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

EMC's numbers when posted this early are not audited actuals. They did not adjust Q2 CDMA ending numbers from 67.1 M to CDG's 65 for instance. They are still the most credible numbers available, but their is some educated SWAG here. It will be interesting to see if the two numbers converge over the next quarter or so. It would be a little surprising to me if CDG was undercounting CDMA subs.....also I dont know how EMC can manage to get an accurate estimate on a monthly basis, since most countries/operators dont publish the numbers that often. In any case, it looks like your guess of 90m year-end subs is going to be pretty accurate. I think the transition from analog to digital is definitely taking place in the US. Total analog subs fell by .3m between April and June....and then fell by 6m between June and August. This drop-off must be coming from the US. Alltel (an analog/CDMA carrier) recently upped their estimates for subscribers adds during 2001/2 by over 20%.... If the Koreans would just cooperate by dropping the subsidy ban, we would have a guaranteed great 4th quarter.... Slacker