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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (17435)9/11/2000 9:33:21 PM
From: Lucretius  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
i'd say we belong somewhere inbetween -g-



To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (17435)9/11/2000 9:35:41 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258
 
That's an excellent demonstration of the market bubble, with the cost expressed in real money terms(ie, Oil). Beautiful.
It also demonstrates that the long energy, short equity hedge should be very profitable here, if "reversion to the mean" still applies (but as the WSJ article shows, overreliance on mathematical models in a system as nonlinear as the stock market is fraught with peril).



To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (17435)9/12/2000 8:32:39 AM
From: Terry Whitman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
Nice Dow/oil chart HB. Looks like we're about to test the lower trendline. Where would the 20 yr. moving avg. be on that- About 150?



To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (17435)9/12/2000 1:09:04 PM
From: Eylon  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
either oil is too cheap, or the Dow's too expensive...

Nice plot but when I look at the data I see that before the first oil embargo in 1973 the ratio was 250 and now it is 315, not that much of a change.
From 1946 to 2000 the ratio DOW/oil is up by only factor of 2. Considering the fact that oil was a lot larger portion of the world economy, and the DOW, in 1946 I would expect higher ratio now. So oil is to expensive.

Eylon



To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (17435)9/12/2000 3:19:40 PM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
Heinz, gold per $ of DJIA is also a similar looking chart.
over the last 30 years.



To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (17435)9/13/2000 2:40:12 PM
From: Bald Eagle  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
RE:in 1980, it took 20 barrels of oil to buy the Dow. now it takes 800 barrels of oil...

Looks to me like it was 800 last year and now it is between 300 and 400.


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