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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (2808)	9/12/2000 7:08:01 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Respond to of 33421

Hi John, That's an articulate and thought provoking article by James J. Cramer, thanks for posting it... GZ

To: John Pitera who wrote (2808)	9/13/2000 9:23:02 AM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi John: Thanks for the post. One point on Cramers commentary. The oil and oil service stocks did not do well in 90 because crude oil started dropping during the air campaign and especially once it was realized the Kuwait well's were being capped in record time. Crude did not stay high for a prolonged period of time. I still think we should look to the 73 - 75 period (and really up to 82 for the peak) period for the way oil and oil service stocks reacted to high crude. I expect a release out of the strategic oil reserve in the near future to help lower the price but these is still a short term measure. It should provide a dip in stock prices but will be an opportunity to buy before the next leg up. From what I read (which means this is already priced in the market) demand is still high (i.e. the higher prices have not made a significant dent (yet?? @ some time it should but since the Gulf war we've had ample supply without restraints and it takes a while for this increase to have an impact, i.e. people have not appreciably changed thier gas consumption habits) and supply is still tight. One item I was able to confirm is Lloyds did tighten thier insuring standards on oil tankers (the spills were too costly). This impacts delivery times. I agree completely with Cramers assessment on caution. 10% of the population can absorb the gas increase but 90% will feel it severely. Just some thoughts. Tim

To: John Pitera who wrote (2808)	9/13/2000 12:16:37 PM
From: Doppler	Respond to of 33421

John, here's something interesting on the put call ratio so far today in the SPX. The two strike prices for the Oct SPX options that are close to the money have put/call ratios as follows. 1475 calls -93 contracts 1475 puts- 618 contracts 1500 calls- 97 1500 puts- 1955 Nearly 20/1 puts to calls today.

To: John Pitera who wrote (2808)	9/13/2000 9:11:23 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

John, holy moly, 1980 redux, when there was a mania in alternative power -g- if you look at XNG, you have five waves down from the 1997 "goldilocks worldwide economy" top to the bottom of the asian crisis, actually energy bottomed in december instead of october like a lot of stuff, now we got a five wave parabolic going and i believe we are topping now in the "new economy" tech revolution. all this stuff in the news about euro energy crisis is a contrary indicator. now i don't think this is good news for the markets because i think what will bring the energy costs down is another eco slowdown. Cramu is finally figuring out this is 1990 and not 1994, eventually the rest of the bulls will figure it out -g- u got a nikkei/nas match, u got an inverted yield curve match, and u got ur oil crisis, who sezs history don't repeat -g- none of that around in 1994, nor was the extremes in bullish sentiment, in fact the put/call ratio was hovering at .75 for a large part of the year. that said the put/call ratios and oversold indicators here are asking for a bounce, in nasdaq. b

To: John Pitera who wrote (2808)	9/14/2000 4:09:36 PM
From: bill meehan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Thanks, John. I hear a lot of maroons say that we should just pressure the Saudi's to pump more or release SPR crude. How to refine it never seems to be a question and I think many "investors" think HO, etc just comes out of a tap. UFB that II bullishness increased to 50% and I see that the VIX fell .79 today. Picked up some QQQ puts near Tuesday's top..."Sinatra puts" QVQVQ <G>